Hail in Florida, June 7, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SFC HI PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER
AND SLIDE NORTH WITHIN THE FA THRU THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MOST MODELS ALSO COMING INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT
A LOW PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THU. GFS IS THE STRONGEST...
BRINGING A 1000 MB LOW THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NHC HAS MENTIONED SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL GO WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE FA PROVIDING ENUF OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SET UP A GOOD ERLY
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS SHUD BE HIGH ENUF TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM
MAKING TO MUCH INLAND PENETRATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN FA.

NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIP. LIGHTNING CLIMO FOR WED DEPENDS ON RIDGE
AXIS BEING NORTH OR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. FOR THE FIRST CASE...THE BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WHEREAS THE LATTER CASE HAS A
GOOD CHANCE ALL OVER. SHUD THE LOW TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP...RIDGE
AXIS SHUD BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
A GOOD CHANCE ALL OVER. FOR THU...PATTERN WILL BE DISTURBED BECAUSE
OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF...SO TSTM CLIMO NOT THE BEST TO FOLLOW.
WITH A GOOD ENUF ERLY FLOW...TSTMS WOULD BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS A SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH NMRS POPS IN THE AFTN. WILL KEEP AT HIGH END SCT POPS
AND SEE HOW THE SYSTEM PLAYS OUT.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...COULD IT BE?  WELL...IF YOU BELIEVE THE
MODEL TRENDS THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF.  THE GFS IS BOLDEST...NOW WITH A 999 MB CYCLONE
MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT THE ETA/DGEX HAS A SYSTEM A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH WEAKER...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NOGAPS HAS NOTHING...YET...BUT EXPECT
SOMETHING TO ARISE IN A COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS INCREASING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHICH SUGGESTS A
SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE SUNCOAST.  THIS IS BACKED UP BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TRUE BERMUDA HIGH OF THE
YOUNG SUMMER.  THE RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE 588 DM
CONTOUR MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE FACT THAT THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
YET...AND THIS WILL EVENTUAL DETERMINE WHERE...IF ANY...SYSTEM WILL
TRACK.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR.  FOR NOW...WILL PLAY FOR STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL WIPE OUT ANY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.  THE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT CANT BE
IGNORED...SO HAVE PUSHED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO THE MARINE
WATERS.  TYPICALLY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SHORT-LIVED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND SOME DRY AIR MAY ACTUALLY
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST BECOME A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN SKY COVER AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE (LESS) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO PROBLEMS TODAY OR TOMORROW...THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL BRING WINDS UP TO SCEC RANGE
FOR OUR SRN WATERS ON THU...BUT NOT GO HIGHER FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 74 92 73 92 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 73 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 50
BKV 69 90 70 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...GOLDSMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
528 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071330-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
528 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL CAUSE
THESE STORMS TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY...CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ056-057-061-072130-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT DESOTO COUNTY...MOST
OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARDEE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
STATIONARY...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARCADIA...SOUTHERN HARDEE AND
CENTRAL EASTERN HIGHLANDS UNTIL 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SOME SMALL HAIL MIXED WITH RAIN MAY
ALSO OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS HAPPENING. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER FLOODED
ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND WEATHER STATEMENTS.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
444 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ039-042-048-072145-
HERNANDO-CITRUS-LEVY-
444 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEVY...CITRUS...AND HERNANDO
COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL
AFFECT WEEKI WACHEE...OTTER CREEK...LEBANON...ROYAL HIGHLANDS...AND
HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER FLOODED
ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND WEATHER STATEMENTS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ051-052-055-056-060-072300-
MANATEE-HARDEE-POLK-SARASOTA-HILLSBOROUGH-
520 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...CENTRAL WESTERN POLK...HARDEE AND CENTRAL
NORTHERN SARASOTA UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY STATIONARY...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY AND RURAL
HARDEE COUNTY...UNTIL 700 PM EDT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS HAPPENING. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL MIXED WITH RAIN. TORRENTIAL RAINS
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER FLOODED
ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND WEATHER STATEMENTS.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
523 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ065-072215-
LEE-
523 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST LEE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT LEHIGH
ACRES...UNTIL 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN
FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ062-072215-
CHARLOTTE-
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHARLOTTE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT BABCOCK RANCH
AND TUCKERS CORNER...UNTIL 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...
REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FLZ039-042-072245-
CITRUS-LEVY-
548 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT
INGLIS...LEBANON...BRONSON AND WILLISTON...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP