Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 22, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...UPPER TROUGH TO SLIDE EAT A BIT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL GIVE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD HAVE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THU AND FRI AS MAIN BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW RETURNS...BUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...ALL MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. GFS
AND DGEX DEVELOP AND KEEP A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA
THRU MONDAY WHILE ECMWF BUILDS IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MODELS THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT CHANCE MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS NEAR 90.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 74 90 / 30 30 20 40
FMY 72 91 72 91 / 40 40 20 40
GIF 72 92 73 91 / 30 30 20 40
SRQ 72 89 73 90 / 30 30 20 40
BKV 68 91 69 91 / 20 30 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....NOAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-221501-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
503 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
LEVY...CITRUS....PASCO AND HERNANDO THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
350 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

FLZ062-065-222030-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
350 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...

A THUNDERSTORM...DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY AND RURAL SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...
UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS