Hail in Florida, July 15, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
120 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TO NEAR THE GEORIGA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH HELPING TO FAVOR COASTAL
COUNTIES FOR BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WILL NO DEVIATE FROM VERY
MUCH.

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.  RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA SO THE FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DOMINATING.  DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLYY INCREASE AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
BUT STILL BELOW FLAG CRITERIA.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77 90 77 91 / 30 50 20 50
FMY  75 93 75 94 / 30 50 20 50
GIF  75 93 75 94 / 30 50 20 40
SRQ  75 90 75 91 / 30 50 20 50
BKV  73 92 73 93 / 30 50 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
433 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND TO
NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED FARTHER INLAND. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HEAVY PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...POOR VISIBILITY...POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WINDS GUSTS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW
EXTRA TRAVEL TIME WHEN DRIVING IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY

PEOPLE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR DARKENING
SKIES. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH OR IF THUNDER IS HEARD...MOVE
INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR
RUNNING WATER.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
606 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FLZ048>051-152315-
HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA
606 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER TAMPAS NORTHERN SUBURBS...

AT 6 PM EDT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY. STRONGER STORMS
NEAR LUTZ AND ODESSA...LAND O LAKES...AND THE SHADY HILLS AREA
OF PASCO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST. RESIDENTS OF
NORTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY...INCLUDING PALM HARBOR...WESTERN
PASCO COUNTY...INCLUDING PORT RICHEY AND HUDSON...AND SOUTHERN
HERNANDO COUNTY...INCLUDING SPRING HILL AND MASARYKTOWN...SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

MOTORISTS ALONG HIGHWAYS 41 AND 19...AS WELL AS THE SUNCOAST
PARKWAY...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN. OTHER RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS...AWAY FROM
WINDOWS...UNTIL THE STORMS END.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WARNINGS...EARLY THIS EVENING.

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
630 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW HILLSBOROUGH RIVE 28.13N 82.35W
07/15/2005                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN BETWEEN BUILDINGS IN HUNTERS GREEN
            APARTMENT COMMUNITY.

0538 PM     HAIL             5 WNW HILLSBOROUGH RIVE 28.13N 82.35W
07/15/2005  1.00 INCH        HILLSBOROUGH       FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SECOND HAND REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
653 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FLZ065-152345-
LEE-
653 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT PAGE
PARK-PINE MANOR...FORT MYERS...WHISKEY CREEK...AND NORTH CAPE
CORAL...UNTIL 745 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN
FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
653 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FLZ043-048-049-152345-
HERNANDO-SUMTER-PASCO-
653 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ROLLING
INTO SPRING HILL AND BROOKSVILLE...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH...WILL
AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...AND WEEKI WACHEE UNTIL 745 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
722 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FLZ055-056-060>062-160000-
MANATEE-CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-SARASOTA-
722 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MOVING THROUGH MYAKKA AND PEACE RIVER AREAS...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
PORTIONS OF WESTERN HARDEE AND WESTERN DESOTO...AND EASTERN MANATEE
AND EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTIES...UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO
DELAY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY ALONG STATE ROADS 64...70...AND 72.

GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PEA SIZE HAIL IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS.

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TORNADO          CHARLOTTE HARBOR        26.96N 82.06W
07/15/2005                   CHARLOTTE          FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TOUCHDOWN OF FUNNEL. DAMAGE IN TWO
            LOCATIONS...UNKNOWN HOW MUCH

0745 PM     TORNADO          12 W PUNTA GORDA        26.93N 82.25W
07/15/2005                   CHARLOTTE          FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TOUCHDOWN ESTIMATED NEAR HIGHWAY 41 IN
            VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE PEACE RIVER
            ENTRANCE. LIVE REPORTS CONTINUED UNTIL 751 PM EDT.

&&

BSG