Damaging Wind in Florida, August 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER IS THANKFULLY RATHER QUIET ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DEALING WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF KATRINA. A FEW STORMS GET GET
STRONG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE
INDICATING MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS SO RISK OF TORNADOES IS
ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

AS KATRINA MOVES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...FEED OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
MOISTURE FEED SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY. TROPICAL FEED SLOWLY
SETTLES SOUTH ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. EXPECT
DRIER WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SHOWERS CONCENTRATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL NOREASTER BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG SFC TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. IF
THIS DOES PAN OUT COULD SEE SOME PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS SHOW WINDS AROUND 12-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 21 KT. SEAS STILL HOVERING NEAR 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. HIGHEST
GUSTS NEAR THE COAST HAVE BEEN AROUND 23 KNOTS PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
GFS IS MODEL OF CHOICE AND SO WILL INDICATE THE SCEC HEADLINE
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH FROM THE S AND SW IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE INTO TUE THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO WED. WEAK COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY SINKS SEWD INTO THU OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING
AND DECREASING...THEN BECOMING NE FRI AND KICK UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
FRONT DRIFTS SWD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  90  75  92 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  79  89  78  90 /  50  60  60  60
JAX  77  91  77  89 /  50  60  60  60
SGJ  78  90  78  88 /  50  60  60  60
GNV  77  90  76  89 /  60  60  60  60
OCF  77  90  76  89 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...CAMP
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1219 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1219 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PEAKS OF SUN AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RAISE HEAT INDICES INTO
THE LOWER 100S THIS AFTERNOON. IF WORKING OUTDOORS...STAY WELL
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR AREA BEACHES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND SIZE OF HURRICANE KATRINA AS IT TRACKS
INLAND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FOR HURRICANE KATRINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT/PC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ024-025-GAZ164-292140-
CHARLTON-DUVAL-NASSAU-
436 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU...DUVAL
AND SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 540 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
MAXVILLE...BALDWIN...BRYCEVILLE...JACKSONVILLE
HEIGHTS...UNF...TALLYRAND AND SAN MARCO THROUGH 530 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
446 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ032-292130-
CLAY-
446 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PENNEY FARMS...OR
ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ASBURY LAKE
AND DOCTORS INLET THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ040-292130-
MARION-
451 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA
AIRPORT...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA...SPARR...REDDICK...
LOWELL...FLEMINGTON...BURBANK AND ANTHONY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ136-292130-
WAYNE-
453 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF
BROADHURST...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND BROADHURST...GARDI...JESUP AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 530 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
502 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ037-292130-
PUTNAM-
502 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUTNAM COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SATSUMA...SAN MATEO...
PALATKA...EAST PALATKA...ORANGE MILLS AND BOSTWICK THROUGH 530 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

FLZ033-038-292215-
FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN FLAGLER
AND WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
15 MILES WEST OF BAKERSVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ESPANOLA
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPUDS...BAKERSVILLE...ELKTON AND
ESPANOLA THROUGH 615 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE