Hail in Florida, April 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 23Z FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA FROM PASCO CO NORTHWARD. TIMING OF
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TRACK PER CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECTING
THIS LINE...WHICH HAS NOW EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF...TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
IS LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF
SEVERE MAGNITUDE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN COVERAGE
AND TIMING...LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...THEN POPS
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD FMY AND SOUTH. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTH OF FMY AND OUR CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN...WILL
CARRY A 30 POP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTM DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY FRI GIVEN THE UPR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR N AND A TRAILING
TROF MOVING THRU OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL END POPS BY 00Z
SAT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF.
EXPECTING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TO WINDY AT TIMES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING GIVEN
THE TIGHTENED PRES GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 30KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE (PER VWP) MIXING DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND
TRENDS...BUT ATTM THINKING WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW WIND ADV
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND RELAX TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR TEMPS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 60S...THEN TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON FRI IN THE 70S AND LOW FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL OUTRUN ITS
SUPPORT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HANGS BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVER-DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR
CONSISTENCY BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS.  FOR NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY DUE
TO REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE U/L LOW OPENS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S ON THURSDAY...THE U/L TROUGH HANGS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RATHER GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP NEAR THE BEACHES AND BAY AREAS WHERE MIXING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LAND INTERFACE RESULTING IN WINDS SUSTAINED
25-30KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND CONCERNED ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS RISES ON THE BAYS AND COASTAL AREAS.
SINCE STRONGER WINDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FROM THE SE AND ARE NOW
TURNING TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...DURATION OF CRITICAL FETCH SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVEL RISES
TO 2 FEET OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IF ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
ANY FURTHER. OTHERWISE...SCA WILL REMAIN POSTED ALL WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE AS LONG WEST TO
WNW FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ON FRI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67 77 63 78 / 70 30 00 00
FMY  67 78 64 80 / 70 40 00 00
GIF  67 78 62 80 / 70 30 00 00
SRQ  67 76 63 78 / 70 30 00 00
BKV  62 75 56 77 / 70 30 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 137 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7 PM FOR
    LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...SUMTER...AND PASCO.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO
    60NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...EO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
502 AM EDT THU APR 7 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
502 AM EDT THU APR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A HAZARD TO
MARINERS...AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.

ALSO...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON. A RIP
CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A
STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER. TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH
PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF
THIS LINE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EARLY OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1137 AM EDT THU APR 7 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-GMZ850-072300-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER-
1137 AM EDT THU APR 7 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 137 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PASCO...SUMTER...LEVY...CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS LINE MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BE READY TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR
SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

FLZ039-071930-
LEVY-
312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BRONSON...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT BRONSON...
UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

JLC