Damaging Wind in Florida, April 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...CURRENT WEAKENING SQUALL LINE OVER SERN GA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE SE AND PRODUCE ISOLD STRONG TSTMS...SPCLY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SEABREEZE TRAPPED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THEN
SQUALL LINE WILL RE-FORM OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND PUSH ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTMS WITH STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE WAY. POPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
LKLY POPS FOR THE NWRN CWA. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
60S...WHILE SWLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WILL KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT PATCHY
TO A MINIMUM.
SUNDAY...SCTD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS IN THE MORNING MAINLY ACRS NERN FL
WILL PULL SE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...BUT WILL COOL QUICKLY LATER
IN THE DAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SUN NIGHT...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS LLVL WINDS
BECOME N/NELY...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS
ALONG THE FLAGLER/ST JOHNS COAST...BUT STILL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL TO
INLCUDE AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE COMFORTABLE 50S
INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LLVL NELY
WINDS...AND 0-6KM FLOW OUT OF THE DRIER WNW DIRECTION. WIDE RANGE IN
MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S COAST TO MID 80S WELL INLAND. GUD
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
MON NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY/FAIR SKIES AS ZONAL FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT ELY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z GFS CONSISTENT WITH OLD RUN IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PCPN
CHANCES FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME...TUE STILL APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN...AND 12Z GFS CLEARS
OUT PCPN CHANCES FOR THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS 0-6KM FLOW GOES BACK
TO THE W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...REGIONAL OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS. SEAS WERE MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONS OVERHEAD...
AND WILL RAISE SCA FOR OFFSHORE LEGS...MAINTAINING SCEC NEARSHORE LEGS.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE OF
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WILL ISSUE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT
FOR AROUND FOUR HOURS. FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...
WITH INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  78  52  79 /  70  10  10   0
SSI  65  79  61  76 /  80  30  10  10
JAX  65  81  57  80 /  90  40  10  10
SGJ  67  79  65  77 /  90  50  10  10
GNV  66  82  58  83 /  90  50  10  10
OCF  67  82  59  84 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
      THE FOLLOWING ZONES...HAMILTON...AND SUWANNEE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
      THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
      20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC...HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
100 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA UNTIL 6 PM EDT...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR ALL THE
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GEORGIA COASTAL
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA...
BAKER...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...HAMILTON...NASSAU AND SUWANNEE.

AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE SANTA FE RIVER CONTINUES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH SLOWLY FALLING
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT/HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
102 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

GAZ132-134-149>151-162-163-301800-
ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-CLINCH GA-COFFEE GA-ECHOLS GA-PIERCE GA-WARE GA-
102 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH...
ATKINSON...WARE...PIERCE...ECHOLS...COFFEE AND BACON COUNTIES FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
9 MILES NORTH OF NICHOLLS TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON TO 31
MILES WEST OF MAYDAY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ALMA TO 6 MILES EAST OF NASHVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTH OF
QUITMAN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PEARSON...NICHOLLS...BICKLEY...AXSON...
MILLWOOD...DIXIE UNION...COGDELL AND STATENVILLE THROUGH 200 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
111 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

AMZ450-FLZ020>025-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-302200-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-NASSAU-PIERCE-SUWANNEE-WARE-WAYNE-
111 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 218 FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 600 PM EDT.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...
CAMDEN...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS...GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...
PIERCE...WARE...WAYNE.

IN NORTH FLORIDA...BAKER...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...HAMILTON...NASSAU...
SUWANNEE.

ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE...
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

ZAPPE/HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

GAZ136-301830-
WAYNE GA-
124 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 124 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ODUM...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF SURRENCY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ODUM THROUGH 230 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
159 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

GAZ134>136-150>153-162>164-301845-
APPLING GA-BACON GA-BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLINCH GA-ECHOLS
GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-PIERCE GA-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
159 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLTON...
CLINCH...BRANTLEY...WARE...PIERCE...ECHOLS...WAYNE...APPLING...BACON
AND GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES NORTH OF ODUM TO 4 MILES EAST OF BRISTOL TO 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAYDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WARESBORO...ODUM...MAYDAY...MANOR...HOMERVILLE...DU PONT...DIXIE
UNION AND DEENWOOD THROUGH 245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

FLZ020-021-301900-
HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-
204 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUWANNEE AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STATENVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND JENNINGS...CROSSROADS...SUWANNEE RIVER STATE
PARK...JASPER...SUWANNEE SPRINGS...NEWBURN...DOWLING PARK AND LIVE
OAK THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

FLZ022-023-302130-
BAKER FL-COLUMBIA FL-
439 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAKER AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLUSTEE...OR ABOUT
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OLUSTEE AND TAYLOR
THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON