Hail in Florida, April 21 to 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT THU APR 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED OVER N
CENTRAL FL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS HIGH
WILL BREAK INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE JUST WEST OF THE FA AND ONE WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVER THE AREA.
THE NEW HIGH MAY HELP TO SET UP A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THUS
WILL KEEP THE TYPICAL COLD AIR PATTERN WEST OF THE MID FL RIDGE...ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO OUR INTERIOR SRN COUNTIES...THOUGH ONLY TALKING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ATTIM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX TO AFFECT THE AREA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FA LATE FRI...
WINDS WILL FINALLY PICK A DIRECTION AND START MOVING IN FROM THE SW.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS SAT MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME TSTMS MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE
NATURE COAST IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY NORTH TO SOUTH SAT AS A PRE-
FRONTAL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF THE FA ATTIM...SO NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED ATTIM.

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE FCST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS REFRESHING SHOT OF DRIER AIR AND DIMINISHING NW WINDS
MAKE FOR A FANTASTIC AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT NEGATED
BY FULL LATE APRIL SUNSHINE (EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE BELOW
NORMAL WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT A COOL-ISH DAY FOR BEACH GOERS).
MONDAY SHOWS SLOW MODERATION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BY TUESDAY...GFS STILL SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
AFTERNOON FIRST ACROSS THE N AND COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOW THIS EVENTUALLY PLAYS OUT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN...BUT GFS/DGEX HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ENERGY IMPULSES
RACING THROUGH FAST MOVING FLOW AT BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME MENTION OF PCPN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED EVENING...AND WILL OBVIOUSLY FINE TUNE THIS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

GFS HAS BOUNCED BACK TO ITS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOLUTION WED AFTN/EVE
THE PAST TWO RUNS...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE
THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME (END OF APRIL) THAT POLAR INTRUSIONS FINALLY
RUN OUT OF GAS S OF 30N LATITUDE.  DRY AIR SHOULD PUNCH THROUGH...SO
PERHAPS A NICE...AND WARM...SPELL OF WX TO END NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT UNTIL NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHUD PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...LIKELY INTO SCEC RANGE DURING THE DAY SAT. SCEC WILL
CONTINUE AS FRONT PASSES LATE SAT AND THEN THRU THE DAY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR 1 TO 3 HRS...NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SAT WILL BE MORE MOIST AS
FLOW FROM THE GULF COMES IN AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THRU LATE SAT.
NEXT POSSIBLE TIME FOR HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE IN THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 61 81 65 79 / 00 10 00 30
FMY 60 85 62 82 / 10 10 00 20
GIF 61 84 63 82 / 10 10 00 30
SRQ 60 80 63 79 / 00 10 00 30
BKV 53 83 56 78 / 00 10 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM....BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1240 PM EDT THU APR 21 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211945-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
1240 PM EDT THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF IN
NATURE...BUT COULD DROP HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO DRY OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...POSSIBLY CAUSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

RJS