Flood in Delaware, March 28 to 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

BUSY MORNING ON THE SHORT TERM DESK. WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, THE KDIX Z/R
RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN PUT INTO CONVECTIVE MODE.

AFTER DISCUSSING THE MID-MORNING SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT IN CARBON, MONROE, AND SUSSEX COUNTIES, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN EXPIRE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STATE MESONET INDICATED(AT 1000 AM) THAT ONLY
HIGH POINT AND WANTAGE WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THERE WERE NO
REPORTS OF ICING PROBLEMS FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS EVEN AT THOSE
TEMPERATURES. GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED THE LAST WEAK OR
TWO AND ARE HELPING TO REDUCE ANY ACCRETION. 1100 AM OBS HAVE
CLIMBED A DEGREE OR TWO. NO FURTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REFRESHED. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DOWN TO OUR SOUTH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IN THE
.75-1.25 RANGE. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCH AREA. THE
APPROACHING RAIN SHEILD(WHICH DOES INCLUDE SOME HEALTHY CONVECTION)
WILL PROBABLY YIELD THE FIRST BATCH OF HYDRO-RELATED WARNINGS.

WITH OCEAN WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH AN ONSHORE
WIND, ONE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE
COASTAL OBSERVATION POINTS. THIS IS NOT CASE ACROSS THE DELAWARE
BEACHES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL STRIP EXTENDING SOUTH FROM MID-OCEAN
COUNTY TO CAPE MAY COUNTY. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THERE WEST AND
IS HAVING MORE OF AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN
OCEAN COUNTY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. ITS DAYS LIKE THESE
THAT SCREAM TEMPERATURE BUST. FROPA COULD YIELD WARMER TEMPS IN THE
10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE IT ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO PAST EVENTS. HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT WITH
THIS WEAK FLOW, THE FRONT SHOULDNT PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER WEST.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOCALES
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA PROBABLY WONT CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING IS WARM MOIST AIR, FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ. WITH THE WARMER
AIR/HIGHER DEWPOINTS PUSHING OVER THE COOLER WATER, THE FOG IS MORE
OF THE ADVECTION TYPE RATHER THAN THE RADIATIONAL VARIETY.

FOG WAS ADDED TO THESE ZONES, WINDS WERE ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON SURFACE
OBS AND THE EXPECTED WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SAID FRONT.

THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM SPC CONTINUES. STABILITY INDICES AS IS DONT NECESSARILY
SCREAM SEVERE. LIS UP THIS WAY ARE ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. CAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON PER THE NAM. TOTAL TOTALS AND
SHOWALTER NUMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED AND WEAKER FLARE UPS. THERE IS A
DRY SLOT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HOLE COULD CAUSE THE STABILITY NUMBERS TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE. WITH A WARM FRONT AROUND, HELICITY VALUES WILL BE LARGE.
ROTATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AN SPS EXISTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TIDAL FLOODING. WELL RE-EVALUATE
THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

LASTLY, WITH SUCH WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE, A SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION HAS FORMED OVER AREA WATERS. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND
THE AMOUNT OF WINDS WE SEE AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE HAVE LOWERED WINDS SPEEDS A NOTCH OVER
ALL WATERS AND HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE SCA FOR THE UPPER BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER
         DE BAY.

&&

KRUZDLO

----------------------PREVIOUS AFD--------------------------

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

MOST ATTENTION HAS GONE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST.  FIRST...TEMPS FELL
A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ...RESULTING
IN SOME FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR
LOOP SUGS PRECIP MAY BE TAPERING OFF FOR A WHILE...HWVR FREEZING
DRZL AND SOME ICY SPOTS MAY CONT FOR A FEW HRS...HENCE WINTER WX
ADVSRY FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED.

SECOND...SOME HEAVY RAIN STIIL SEEMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FA. QPF
FROM THE NAM IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHILE GFS GIVES US UP TO ABOUT
2.5 INCHES. EITHER WAY...AFTER ADDING IN POTENTIAL RUN-OFF FROM SNOW
MELT...THE THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING CONTINUES AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE LEFT AS IS.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WHICH COULD ALSO
CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS OF A MORE SHORT-FUSED TYPE. LOOKING AT THE
NAM AND GFS STABILITY PROGS...IT SEEMS THAT THE CHC FOR TSTMS SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE SHIFTED THE MENTION OF TSTMS
IN THE FCST TO THE AFTN AND EVENING PERIODS.

THIRDLY...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX OVER THE SERN
PART OF OUR FA.  THE LATEST NAM RUN IS NOW INDICATING LATE AFTN
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...ALONG WITH OBVIOUSLY STG
DYNAMICS. WE MAY NEED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCD HEATING
TO REALIZE THIS INSTBY.

RAIN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR TUE MORNING WHILE WE ARE
STILL UNDER THE UPPER LOW CRCLN...BUT SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUE
AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NO SGFNT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD. MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK LOOKS FAIR AND WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER POTENT LOOKING UPPER TROF IS FCST TO APPROACH
BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A GOOD CHC FOR RAIN FRI AND/OR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN WHICH OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLIER LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY
MOISTENING THE LOWEST LAYERS...AND CEILINGS HAVE BECOME MVFR TO
IFR...AND SHOULD FURTHER LOWER TO IFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR BY MORNING,
AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE WINDS WERE KEPT MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST, VEERING TO NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. WE KEPT IN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN, AS WELL AS A MENTION OF CB WITH ANY ELEVATED THUNDER THAT IS
ABLE TO FORM. CONDITIONS MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH EARLY TONIGHT, BUT MAY
PERHAPS DO SO A BIT WELL TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING OR DURING TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY, AS WE WILL RETAIN THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 30S KNOT RANGE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ALSO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE LOW TUESDAY.

WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SPSPHI FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. 00Z NGM STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS,
BUT IF WE ARE ABLE TO REACH 1.7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, WE MAY GET INTO THE MINOR RANGE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NJ
COAST.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...AMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-291100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
532 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW
JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...

SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. HEAVY
RAINS LATER TODAY MAY CAUSE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF AREA
STREAMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ALSO...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
DELMARVA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

IF FLOODING CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY OR TONIGHT...THEY MAY CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

AMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-282134-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CAROLINE MD-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNES MD-TALBOT MD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY...DOVER AND VINELAND
1036 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RISK AREA INCLUDES MOST OF
THE DELMARVA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
BRING RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND HEATING TO MAKE THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

KRUZDLO