Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in California, August 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTION HAS POPPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH CELLS NOTED ON RADAR
FROM MT PINOS TO TEHACHAPI TO THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR ALL OF THESE CELLS FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS AND MOVE EAST IN THE THE KERN DESERTS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE
EAST AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER, MOVING IN THE SJV.
AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SJV
TONIGHT, RATHER LET THE SWING SHIFT MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE
INCLUSION, IT IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS HOUR. LITTLE CHANGE IS
NOTED IN THE PATTERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE MESO NAM
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOWING THE THETA E RIDGE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
NOSED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST IN THESE FIELDS IS SHOWN IN THE 48 HOUR PROGS FOR
MONDAY. WITH NO LARGE SCALE MECHANISM TO MOVE THE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA, WILL OPT TO GO WITH THE STATUS QUO AND KEEP CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DESERT AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN TO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY HOT, WITH THE ONLY RELIEF COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE RAIN COOLED AIR MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT
LIVED RELIEF. OVER THE SJV, THE ONLY HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPS IS FROM
A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN DAYTIME MAXES.
THE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE SHORT TERM
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S WEDNESDAY. THIS POSITION
SHOULD DIMINISH THE MONSOON FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
THE GFS AND EURO PROG AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD PROVIDE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS WILL INDICATE A DRY AND COOLER TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NOT ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GEM SHOWING A TROUGH REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ALASKA TO SOUTH CALIFORNIA AT 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z MONDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN
       COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
       THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

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