Flash Flood in Arizona, August 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS WEEK AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIT THE GROUND RUNNING AT THE START OF THIS SHIFT AS
STORMS OVER TUCSON WARRANTED BOTH AN SVR AND AN FFW. FOR A RUNDOWN
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND THE TUCSON METRO AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
PHXPNSTWC. TO SHOW THE RANGE RAINFALL HAS RUN...TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS ONLY SEEN 0.11 OF AN INCH WHILE THE UNIVERSITY OF
ARIZONA SAW 1.47 INCHES. ADD TO THIS NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ALL OVER
THE TUCSON METRO AREA...AND IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS STORM WAS NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN. STORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY WARRANTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...GIVEN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE NUTTALL BURN AREAS.

CURRENTLY...THINGS HAVE QUIETED CONSIDERABLY. SHOWERS OVER DOUGLAS
SEEM TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY...EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS
CONTENT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER OR OUTSIDE THE CWA.  NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
LOWER POPS INTO THE SLIGHT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEAR TERM MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND THE MOISTURE IS NOT GOING
ANYWHERE...SO NO REASON TO THINK THAT TOMORROW WILL BE ANY LESS
ACTIVE. SO AGAIN...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1025 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZZ019-029>035-081400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1025 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON. STORMS WILL THEN PUSH
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DESERTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE SATURATED SOILS WILL CAUSE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RAPIDLY RUNOFF INTO WASHES ALREADY OCCUPIED
BY PONDED OR RUNNING WATER.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH A BROAD
MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN BEE SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO...INTO NORTH CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
WEST TODAY AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THE UPPER HIGH...CENTERED NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
ARIZONA TODAY WILL CHANGE FROM A NEUTRAL ORIENTATION INTO A MORE
ELONGATED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

THE INCREASED LIFT RESULTING FROM THE SLOWLY APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON.

THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TUCSON INDICATED A WEAK STEERING
FLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS. THIS RATHER WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND RESULTING WEAK SHEAR BOTH SUGGEST THAT PULSE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHING ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE AFORE MENTIONED MOISTURE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH OFF
THE MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO
THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON AND FAR WESTERN DESERTS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ACROSS THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
THE SOILS ARE WELL SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1043 PM MST SUN AUG 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUCSON                  32.20N 110.89W
08/07/2005                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE
            CITY. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

WJM