Rip Current in Alabama, September 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH REMNANTS OF RITA GETTING SHEERED OPEN BY THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...THEN PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH AND COOL
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
TO PERSIST AND WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...THEN POPS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE MONDAY
THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. MAV AND MET ARE A BIT CLOSER IN AGREEMENT
SO WILL TAKE A BLEND OF TEMPS AND POPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

AS FOR FLASH FLOODING...HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON MONDAY AND INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WATCH. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ALREADY...AND WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF
SHOWERS...MANY AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES THRU MIDDAY
MONDAY BEFORE THE DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING SOUTHWARD.

AS FOR TIDES...THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS HELD WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE ALABAMA COASTS ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO MAINLY THE ALABAMA COASTS AGAIN
TONIGHT. SINCE NO REPORTS OF FLOOD PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS...THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT FOR THE ALABAMA COASTS FOR FLOOD
PRONE AREAS ALONG THE CAUSEWAY...AROUND DOG RIVER...DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND WEST OF GULF SHORES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER
QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND APPROACHING LOW TIDE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU 8 PM TONIGHT. VERY WEAK
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR...BUT EXPECT ANY TORNADO
THREAT TO BE VERY ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH LACK OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR AND DEEP INSTABILITIES. WITH THIS SAID...AREA RESIDENTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER OR WARNINGS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEW AUGUSTA...TO EVERGREEN
TO LUVERNE LINE.

39/DARBE

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...BASICALLY MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED. GFS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AREA WEATHER THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY...AND CURRENT LOW POPS ARE STILL
JUSTIFIED. AN EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP BY SUNDAY AND ANY WEAK WAVE
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...SO MAINTAINED THE SCATTERED
POPS FOR SUNDAY. /39

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO OCNLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF RITA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SO WILL SHOW SCEC FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT. TIDE LEVELS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MOBILE BAY...AND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE TIDE LEVELS TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT DURING HIGH
TIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY INCREASING THE OFFSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. /12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM AT THIS TIME. /39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  91  72  90 /  50  50  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  73  89 /  50  50  30  20
DESTIN      76  85  74  88 /  50  50  40  20
EVERGREEN   73  87  69  88 /  60  60  30  10
WAYNESBORO  74  93  69  89 /  60  50   5   5
CAMDEN      73  89  68  87 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THRU 10 AM MONDAY ALZ061>064.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON MONDAY ALL ZONES ALZ051>064.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON MONDAY ALL ZONES FLZ001>006.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON MONDAY MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
623 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACH AREAS TODAY...

...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES ALABAMA TODAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...A PART OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.  THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS OF GENERALLY AROUND 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG COASTAL ALABAMA...WITH TIDE LEVELS TYPICALLY
1 FOOT OR LESS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

SPIRAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

ALZ053-251630-
CLARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GROVE HILL...
1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLARKE COUNTY...

AT 1100 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALKER SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
ALLEN...SUGGSVILLE...WHATELY...GROVE HILL AND PEACOCK THROUGH 1130 AM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AS WELL AS
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF VER HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

ALZ051>055-MSZ067-075-076-251830-
CHOCTAW-CLARKE-GREENE-MONROE-PERRY-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

...TORNADO WATCH 820 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE.

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE AND
WILCOX.

THIS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.