Lightning Strike in Wisconsin, May 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS
AND SVR POTENTIAL.

DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE GRT LAKES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.  PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ACTUALLY
OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S LATE MORNING.  DEBRIS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLDS WERE GRAD FILTERING INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND
WERE SHOWING UP ON THE DLH RADAR.

EVENTUALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMP TO WORK NWD INTO THE CWA
WITH LLJ/WAA TO PROVIDE BETTER SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL...BUT SINCE AIRMASS
INIT DRY...MAY NEED TO MENTION LATE WORDING FOR TNT.  AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...UPR JET DYNAMICS NIL.  SOME MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED AS S/W
PASSES OVERNIGHT...TO STILL OFFER A POTENTIAL.  WILL MENTION A MRNG CHC
OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO FRONT STILL EXITING
THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS PROG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO REMAIN
ENTRENCED OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGH SFC DPTS LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT.  REMAINDER OF THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT WED. FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND
WAVERING FNTL BNDRY AND CHCS OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TEMPS ARE NO
BARGAIN EITHER PENDING ON WND DIR.

STARTING THU NGT...QUASI-SNTRY FNT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN RETURNING
NORTH AS LOW PRES MOVS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT A MCS TO DVLP OVR
THE PLAINS WHERE LOW-LVL JET AND TRIPLE POINT TO BE CO-LOCATED. THIS MCS
SHOULD MOV E-SE ALONG THE FNT WITH MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE
TO OUR SOUTH. WL KEEP A SML POP ACROSS MY SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. EVEN THO
THE SFC FNT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON FRI...MDLS BRING THE 8H FNT NWD
INTO CNTRL WI. INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASES THRU THE DAY WITH 8H LIS
DROPPING BLO ZERO OVR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AND MSTR...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS...ALL
POINT TO A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ON FRI. TEMPS TO BE HELD IN CHECK
FRI BY CLDS/PCPN/EASTERLY SFC WNDS. THE CHCS OF PCPN CONT INTO FRI NGT
AS SFC FNTL BNDRY EDGES NORTH INTO SRN WI. CONVERGING WNDS ALONG THE FNT
AND MOD INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE RISK OF
SHWRS/TSTMS.

HEADED INTO THE EXTENDED...PERSISTENT WEST COAST UPR TROF AND ERN U.S./
WRN ATLANTIC UPR RDG TO KEEP AN ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE WRN GREAT
LKS RGN. THE FNTL BNDRY AT THE SFC TO BE WAFFLING BETWEEN THE GREAT LKS
AND THE OHIO VLY RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK. AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE THIS BNDRY...SHWRS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THEIR PASSAGE LEADING TO A
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATN.

THE FNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL OR SRN WI ON SAT.
PROMIXITY OF THE BNDRY WL LEAD TO AT LEAST A CHC OF PCPN. ONE OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES ARRIVES SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS. THE BNDRY SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTH ON SUNDAY DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION...THUS PCPN SHOULD BE MORE SCT IN NATURE. WL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MON/MON NGT DRY AS BNDRY MAY BE FAR ENUF SOUTH SUCH THAT
WEAK HI PRES MAY TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUE...HGTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. BEGIN TO
RISE ALLOWING THE BNDRY TO DRIFT NORTH ONCE AGAIN. WL KEEP THE CHC OF
PCPN IN FOR TUE/TUE NGT. WED IS IFFY AT THIS POINT PENDING IF BNDRY GETS
PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN BY CONVECTION.

ON A SIDE NOTE...WE WL HAVE TO WATCH PCPN AMTS THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
GROUND IS RATHER SATURATED DUE TO RAINFALL OVR THE PAST WEEK TO TEN
DAYS. IF ANY TRAINING TSTMS DVLP OVR THE AREA...THERE MAY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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