Wildfire in Washington, July 30 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
830 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.  THE 18Z
GFS MODEL WAS HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL...AND WILL BE THE BIG
FEATURE TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH A WEAK WAVE ADDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE WAS ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAULINA.  THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE
LOW AT NEARBY LOCATIONS IN CROOK COUNTY.  THIS LIKELY RESULTED IN
MAINLY DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...WITH 3 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES
NOTED.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOW STABILIZING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  WOLF

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OREGON...AND SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.  AS SUCH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DRY LIGHTNING WILL CAUSE NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LIMITED SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND WIND SHEAR
IS NOT STRONG SO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 80

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION UP SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING...THUS STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTAIN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.  AS MORE AND MORE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD AROUND THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND KEEP IT AROUND THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH NOT
QUITE SO AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER OFF-SHORE.  AT THIS POINT THE
ECMWF IS FAVORED BECAUSE IT HINTS AT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SOUND
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER WORDING IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS AS THE TROUGH...WHETHER GREAT OR SMALL...WILL SPREAD
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED.  CANTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PENDLETON (AIRPORT) 063 096 062 095 / 000 000 000 005
WALLA WALLA         065 096 064 095 / 000 000 000 005
TRI-CITIES          063 098 061 097 / 000 000 000 005
YAKIMA              063 096 062 095 / 000 000 000 005
HERMISTON           063 097 062 096 / 000 000 000 005
ELLENSBURG          060 094 059 093 / 000 000 000 005
REDMOND             051 094 052 093 / 000 010 010 020
LA GRANDE           053 096 052 095 / 000 005 010 020
JOHN DAY            053 095 052 094 / 000 010 010 020
THE DALLES          064 095 063 094 / 000 000 000 010
&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

86

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
755 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004

ORZ041>050-WAZ024>030-301200-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR)-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)-BLUE MOUNTAINS-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA)-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES-KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (WA)-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA)-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
755 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMOKE
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
     CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
     (WA), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA), EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER
     COLUMBIA BASIN (OR), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)

A WEAK WAVE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SMOKE AND HAZE
SOUTHEAST FROM WILDFIRES THAT ARE BURNING IN THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMOKE FRIDAY
          EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE
          SOUTHERN CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER
          COLUMBIA BASIN (WA), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA),
          EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
          CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR), FOOTHILLS OF THE
          BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)

DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY
          CENTRAL OREGON, BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN
          DAY HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

SMOKE SATURDAY
          EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE
          SOUTHERN CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER
          COLUMBIA BASIN (WA), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA),
          NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
          (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR),
          FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
          NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN
          DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
          WALLOWA COUNTY

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY THE
ATMOSPHERE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.  AS SUCH
THERE IS A SLIGHT THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND NEW WILDFIRE STARTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ON SUNDAY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL START OUT DRY...BUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THE DAY...STORMS WILL BECOME WET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PROTOTYPE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/FORECAST/HWOGRAPHICS/HWOGRAPHICS.PHP

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE G IN
HWOGRAPHICS AND THE G IN HWOGRAPHICS.PHP.