Damaging Winds in Virginia, May 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO MTNS THIS EVENING AND
INTO EASTERN VA BY MORNING.  PRECIP AHEAD AND WITH FRONT WILL ALSO
HANG BEHIND SYSTEM OVER EASTERN PARTS FA THRU DAYBREAK. FRONT STALLS
DURING AM HRS...UNTIL ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH MIDDAY MON.  THIS UPR AIR IMPULSE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP BKN CLDS OVER MOST OF AREA AND TO TRIGGER SOME
TSRA OVER PORTIONS OF AREA MON AFTN-PM. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO AREA LATE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

FOR MONDAY NIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
ALSO WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR/LOWER
DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LOWS AT 35 OR LOWER
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF PATCHY FROST IN THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY. ALSO WILL BE GOING WITH LOWS 32 OR LOWER IN A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TEMPORARY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK TROUGH AND LINGER CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FOR DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A LOT WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE PARKS ITSELF. THE GFS SELECTS AN AREA
WEST OF HERE KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PERIODIC WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SELECTS TO POSITION THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THUS HELPING TO SHUNT ANY WEATHER EITHER WELL
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA...AND ALLOWING FOR HIGHER
HEIGHTS...THUS WARMER DAY TIME HIGHS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.
CONFIDENCE IN SELECTING ONE OF THESE AS EXACTLY IS WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN IS LOW. AND IF I DID SELECT THE POTENTIALLY WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...I WOULD NOT PLACE MORE THAN A 20 OR 30 POP IN ANY GIVEN
TIME PERIOD. AS SUCH...I WILL SELECT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD...AND AS A COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES...GO WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS. WILL ALSO GO WITH
LIGHT WINDS WITH EITHER A SOUTHWEST OR WEST COMPONENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH MAY 4 300 AM UNTIL 800 AM NCZ001-002-018.
VA...FREEZE WATCH MAY 4 300 AM UNTIL 800 AM VAZ007-009>020.
WV...FREEZE WATCH MAY 4 300 AM UNTIL 800 AM WVZ042>045.
&&

MG/DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
548 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-031000-
ALLEGHANY VA-ALLEGHANY NC-AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-ASHE NC-BATH VA-
BEDFORD VA-BLAND VA-BOTETOURT VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-
CARROLL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-CRAIG VA-FLOYD VA-FRANKLIN VA-GILES VA-
GRAYSON VA-GREENBRIER WV-HALIFAX VA-HENRY VA-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-
MONTGOMERY VA-PATRICK VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-PULASKI VA-ROANOKE VA-
ROCKBRIDGE VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-SMYTH VA-STOKES NC-SUMMERS WV-SURRY NC-
TAZEWELL VA-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-WYTHE VA-YADKIN NC-
548 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-058-059-022229-
CASWELL NC-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 MILES AN HOUR...AND SMALL
HAIL...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FROM REIDSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA...TO A
DANVILLE VIRGINIA...RIDGEWAY AND LEDA LINE. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES UP
TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IN AN HOUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE
STORMS. RAINFALL OF THIS RATE CAN CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.