Heavy Rain in Vermont, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM AS GOING FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHWRS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCT ACRS FA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RADAR INDICATES LARGE AREA OF SHWRS NOW MOVG INTO
ST LWR VLY. THIS AREA OF PCPN EXTENDS BACK ACRS SRN ONT INTO
MICHIGAN...SO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONITE LOOK GOOD. THNDSTRMS
SHOWING UPSTREAM AS WELL. EXPECT THEM TO MOVE INTO FA OVRNGHT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS IN THE MID LVLS. RISK OF SVR MINIMAL AS LLVLS RMN
STABLE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. RISK OF HVY
RAIN OVRNGHT WITH PWS ARND 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL...ALTHO THERE WILL BE SHARP RISES
LATER TONITE/MON AM.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WILL SEE AN OVERRUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVE EASTWARD.
ALREADY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE HURON HEADING INTO GEORGIAN
BAY AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT SOME OF THAT CONVECTION TO MAKE IT
INTO THE FORECAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE FROM HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WERE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT...AS THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION...BUT AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHARP RISES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY FROM THE RUNOFF.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...
WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TOBE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...SO GOING
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  COLD FRONT TO THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION(THU-SUN)...
WILL OPT TO KEEP MOST OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLNS INCLUDING LAST NIGHTS EUROPEAN RUNS
INDICATE BROAD TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NE CANADA
DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SUPPRESSED WELL
SOUTH OF REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S.. NW MID LEVEL FLOW ON BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH WILL SPELL OUT MAINLY PC AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDS ACROSS
FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION TO DRY FCST IS WEAK
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH THU INTO THU NT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLT TO LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...THEN DRY FROM FRI
INTO SUN. 00Z GFS SOLN OF DRIVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHORTWAVE/PRECIP QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST LATE FRI INTO SAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS DOES THE 06Z GFS OP
RUN. MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NE CONUS SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO ACT AS AN INHIBITING FACTOR...
STRETCHING/WEAKENING ANY FEATURES EJECTING EASTWARD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-240840-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN CLINTON-
EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN RUTLAND-ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
LAMOILLE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
440 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WEEK.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...THUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

EVENSON