Flash Flood in Vermont, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

UPDATED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
9 PM.

.DISC...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS KEEP COMING. ALY COUNTY WARNING AREA
IN SLIGHT RISK WITH SPC DAY 1 (12Z/24TH-12Z/25TH). DAY 2
(12/25TH-12Z/26TH) GENERAL OUTLOOK WITH SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR
WEST. DAY 3 (12Z/26TH-12Z/27TH) SLIGHT RISK MOST OF AREA. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND VOLATILE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF IMPULSES AND THEIR
INTERACTION WITH FRONTAL ZONE. WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS
WITH SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MID WEST OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STRONGER INITIALIZATION OF ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE
POSSIBLE. WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVING TO
NORTH. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE LOW AND COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND. MID LEVEL FLOW STRONG
WITH 50-60 KT. PRIMARILY THREAT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO...STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO FAVOR A HAIL THREAT. MAY NEED REST OF TODAY OR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERIOD TO HANDLE CONVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONVECTION
MOVES OFF WITH IT WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STALL TO OUR SOUTH THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...ENERGY/LOW EJECTS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY TRIGGERING MORE CONVECTION BEST CHANCES WILL BE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IMPROVING AT
ALL VFR. MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION MOVES OUT MVFR WITH FOG AND
SCT STRATUS EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND ALREADY
WET CONDITIONS HAS PRODUCED SOME FLOODING ACROSS AREA. SEE FLOOD
STATEMENTS (FLSALY) FOR DETAILS ON MOHAWK...MATTAWEE AND SACANDAGA
RIVERS. MORE HEAVY RAINS WITH CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT STORMS
SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH.

.ALY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT...CTZ001-013-
MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-251100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  AN ADDITIONAL
CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING.  BECAUSE SOME AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST TO LAKE GEORGE HAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT...THESE AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
230 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHLAND                 42.30N 74.33W
05/24/2004                   GREENE             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON ROAD

&&

VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLEBURGH             42.60N 74.33W
05/24/2004                   SCHOHARIE          NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN

&&

VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               43.04N 75.07W
05/24/2004  1.75 INCH        HERKIMER           NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

VTK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ050-084-VTZ013-242330-

...THUNDERSTORMS IN BENNINGTON...SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALIZED ROAD FLOODING IN SARATOGA
COUNTY AT HIGH POINT NEAR MALTA RIDGE.

RADAR INDICATED ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3.5
INCHES IN A STRIP FROM BALLSTON SPA IN SARATOGA COUNTY TO NEAR NORTH
EASTON AND WHITE CREEK IN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHAFTSBURY...
ARLINGTON...ROUND LAKE...GREENWICH AND CAMBRIDGE.

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP F
0719PM     MON MAY 24 2004
#1 0000001 000
FHIF WLSR APTS
00152    FILE 28   HIGHLAND FALLS PO NY0352400               MAY 24-04
TO       APB

         ROUTE 9W IS CLOSED IN FORT MONTGOMERY DUE TO A SERIOUS

PI MVA.   AWAITING ACCIDENT RECONSTRUCTION TEAM

TRAFFIC IS BEING REROUTED THROUGH MONTGOMERY ROAD BACK TO ROUTE 9W

UNKNOWN  ESTIMATED TIME FOR ROAD TO BE REOPENED.

AUTH CHIEF PETER MILLER                          BORRA/1916
     CHIEF JOHN WHIFFEN TOWN OF HIGHLANDS POLICE NY0355800
OPER - BORRA,GINAMARIE                1918