Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, June 1, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A HETEROGENEOUS AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AT MID AFTERNOON.
DRY DESERT AIR HAD EDGED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 AND DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE 20S NORTHWEST OF SAN
ANGELO. OVER THE EASTERN HEARTLAND...A MODIFIED TROPICAL MARITIME
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAD BACKED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF BIG SPRING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND CLOSELY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL FINALLY RETREAT WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST ATTENTION
WILL SHIFT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
INTERSTATE 20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z MESOETA PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE TO NEAR 3500 J/KG NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CAP TO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ETA AND AVN SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY
LATE EVENING AND MAY BE OVERDONE ON QPF. NONETHELESS...MAV GUIDANCE
MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS APPEAR REASONABLE...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
850 MB FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES MAY DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MESOETA PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ZERO CINH OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP FROM SAN ANGELO NORTH
AND EAST. AS SAID...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE.

DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STALLS THE FEATURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. SOME MIDLEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
HINTED AT BY MIDWEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST BEYOND DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     73  95  69  91 /  10  20  40  20
SAN ANGELO  73 101  72  94 /  10  10  20  10
JUNCTION    72 100  71  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-021921-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON TO MASON. A
DRYLINE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. THE THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERTZON TO ELDORADO
TO JUNTION WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS THE MAIN THREATS
WILL CONTINUE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...IN THAT ORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EAST OF A HASKELL TO BRADY AND COLEMAN LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTHEAST OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.

27/BRAZZELL