Hail in Texas, August 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TEMPORARLY STABILIZED AS
AIR WORKED OVER FROM STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY. SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED
THROUGH THIS MORNING RESULTED IN SHOWERS...BUT ONLY VERY ISOLATED
THUNDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED THUNDER ACTIVITY...
HOWEVER...LITTLE IN WAY OF STRONG CONVECTION. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL
GIVE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SE OK A LAST DYING GASP AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA COULD SEE STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT...LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
TOUGH TO SEE EXACTLY HOW THIS FOCUS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BEST BET WILL BE SW AR...POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN
LA. GFS IS RUNNING WETTER INTO SUNDAY THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT
FACT REMAINS THAT WITH THE DEAD FRONT...AIRMASS STABILIZATION WILL
BE OF TEMPORARY NATURE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NEXT
SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY. THIS TIME ITS THE ETA WITH MORE PRONOUNCED
CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. BENDING OF HEIGHT CONTOURS
A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE THAN WITH WAVE TONIGHT...SO VERY UNCERTAIN WITH
EXTENT OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THAT SAID...WENT WITH 40 TO 50
PERCENT. WILL SEE WARMING TREND IN LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...IN ABSENCE OF
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S BACK TO HAUNT US BY MID
WEEK. APPEARS DEEP TROFFING WILL APPROACH NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEEKEND.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF HAS ANY IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  72  91 /  50  50  40  20
MLU  72  86  71  90 /  50  60  40  20
TXK  71  86  70  91 /  50  50  40  20
TYR  72  87  72  92 /  50  40  30  20
LFK  73  89  73  92 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

VII

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
145 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
145 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT MAY IGNITE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.