Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, August 19 to 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.UPDATE...
LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS MOSTLY CLEARED EAST OF AREA...ALTHOUGH A REMNANT
SMALL AREA OF MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAT HAS SINCE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.
THIS WAVE APPEARS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS THAN EITHER INDICATED
BY THE LATEST ETA OR GFS MODEL RUNS...COMPARING SOUNDING AND
PRIFILER WINDS WITH INITIAL MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES...THUS DEMARKING
MORE SHARPLY THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARS
WE ARE IN A TEMPORARY LULL UNTIL SURFACE HEATING AND NEXT WEAK WAVE
NOW APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND JUST DEPARTING WAVE...YET AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE POISED FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GOOD REASON TO RETAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH INDICATIONS OF MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING. AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE JUICY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. CANT DECIDE IF THIS PATTERN IS MORE LIKE SPRING OR
EARLY FALL...BUT IT SURE DOESNT LOOK MUCH LIKE SUMMER.

BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WITH THE NEXT SHARP
SHORTWAVE NOW DIPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT APPROACH OF THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT WILL GENERATE A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS WAVE ALSO APPEARS SLIGHTLY
SHARPER THAN LATEST MODEL RUNS AND MAY THUS TURN OUT JUST A BIT
SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EITHER WAY...BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. WILL ADDRESS THIS
FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
MCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ021>044-192230-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY...A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL COMBINE TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELLS.
THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH
A CHILDRESS TO PLAINVIEW TO MORTON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW STORMS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN THIS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.