A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over the Davis and Glass Mountains during the afternoon of the 14th. One storm produced nickel size hail near Alpine.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over the Davis and Glass Mountains during the afternoon of the 14th. One storm produced nickel size hail near Alpine. Heavy rainfall associated with the thunderstorm activity also produced significant flash flooding along Alpine Creek in Alpine. Local officials called it the worst flooding to affect the city in thirty years. Flash flooding also resulted in road closures across parts of Pecos County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 1:04 PM CST, 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 .SHORT TERM... THE GFS LOOKS TO BE INITIALIZED BEST...PARTICULARLY WITH THE COMPACT CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA... AND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS. AS A RESULT THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TREND TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION OUT WEST TO EXPAND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND TRANSLATES EAST LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT TWO MAXIMA OF QPF ARE EXPECTED...ONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... AND ANOTHER STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN PRESIDIO COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS REASONABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN REASONABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...UPPER DYNAMICAL FORCING...AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER THREE CM. WE WILL NOT HOWEVER ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AND WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE CONVECTION IS LOW THIS EVENING...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ONE OR TWO PULSE MULTICELLS LAY DOWN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. REGARDING THE GRIDS...WE HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ETA QPF IN THE FIRST 12H AS THE GFS MAXIMA LOOK GOOD DESPITE THIS MODELS PROPENSITY FOR CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND INFLATED QPF. HIGHEST POPS ARE MORE OR LESS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST QPF...WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWFA. THE GFS COMPARES BEST TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN TD AND WIND FIELDS...AND THESE GRIDS ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. LASTLY...A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE. .LONG TERM... THE MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE THE ROCKIES/ GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING THE FA UNDER NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ESTABLISHING A WEAKNESS/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DIRTY RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS FEASIBLE GIVEN CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES INFRINGING UPON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF CONVECTION/RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN SPECIFICS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGEST RELATIVELY HIGH POPS ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY. WE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY IN PROXIMITY TO WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL SHIFT GRIDDED POPS NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE DRIEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN THE PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY DEEPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING WILL USHER A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 87 66 87 66 / 20 60 20 40 CARLSBAD NM 87 63 85 64 / 40 50 40 40 DRYDEN TX 87 67 87 67 / 10 50 20 30 FORT STOCKTON TX 87 65 86 66 / 30 60 40 40 GUADALUPE PASS TX 79 60 78 61 / 50 40 40 40 HOBBS NM 86 62 85 65 / 30 70 40 40 MARFA TX 82 57 79 58 / 30 70 40 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 65 87 66 / 20 60 20 40 ODESSA TX 87 65 87 65 / 20 60 30 40 WINK TX 92 67 93 68 / 30 60 40 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && 70/10
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 218 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-151000- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 218 PM CDT (118 PM MDT) SAT AUG 14 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING FROM THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES EXCEEDED AN INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement officials and a local radio station reported a swath of nickel size hail from U.S. Highway 90/67 west of Alpine to State Highway 118 south of the city.
The Alpine Police Department barricaded city streets at several low water crossings at 14:15 CST due to flash flooding. Shortly before 1600 CST Alpine Creek began to overflow its banks, and washed away the police barricades. During the next half hour, residents were evacuated from several homes along the creek as flood waters continued to rise.
Flash flooding resulted in high water flowing over Farm to Market Road 1053 north of Fort Stockton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5418476, 5418477, 5418478.