Tornado and Hail in Texas, April 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEW ZONES WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 63
VALID TIL 01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A SEPARATE...SMALLER LINE HAS POPPED UP IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR EXTENDING FROM BURLESON COUNTY INTO NORTHERN GRIMES
COUNTY. NORTHERN STORMS ARE PUTTING OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE LENGTH
OF THE LINE. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EFFECT WILL THESE
BOUNDARIES HAVE ON OUR WEATHER. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT
REVIEWING THE 18Z ACARS DATA INDICATE THE CAP HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION
SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AROUND
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONT WILL AID
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

ALL THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF
COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
46/33

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION GALVESTON/MATAGORDA BAYS TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID TIL 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 61 45 62 39 / 70 70 60 30 05
HOUSTON (IAH)         56 63 47 63 40 / 80 70 60 30 05
GALVESTON (GLS)       61 67 52 67 49 / 80 70 60 30 05

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO
LIVINGSTON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION AND
LIKELY CAUSING SOME TRAINING HEAVY RAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 INCH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL. THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RISE ON AREA CREEKS...RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AND THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.