Damaging Wind in South Dakota, July 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME

.DISCUSSION...VORTICITY CENTER OVER SERN MT CORNER WILL MOVE ACROSS
NWRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVR NWRN SD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG SD-NE
BORDER WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD. MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTION TO
SYSTEM. GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER PHP BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES IT TWD
FSD BY MORNING...WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN...AND HIGHER RH OVER ERN
ZONES TUES. ETA RUNS HAVE KEPT IT ACRS NRN SD...WITH MUCH SMALLER
QPF...AND DRIES OUT THE AREA BY MORNING. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NWRN SD...THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT N OF I-90 WHERE ETA SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY ARE MORE SWLY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA TUES FOR PTLY CLOUDY DAY. RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT-WED MORNING...AND
CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WED. AS UPPER LOW DEVLOPS OVER
CAN...NWLY FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN FRI AS SURFACE
HIGH OVERN SD WILL BRING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE BLACK HILLS. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER SAT MORNING...BUT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SD...NONE.
.WY...NONE.

SANDERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
700 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-201300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
700 AM MDT (800 AM CDT) MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER...AND EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
700 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     WASTA                   44.07N 102.45W
07/19/2004  60 MPH           PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 SE WALL              43.84N 102.03W
07/19/2004  60 MPH           PENNINGTON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

ME