Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, June 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES AND SOME CIGS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD FOG. IFR FROM LOCALLY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS THAT RECEIVED SIG PCPN ON WED. BY MID MORNING EXPECT VIS TO
IMPROVE BUT REMAIN MVFR CAT ENTIRE CWA DUE TO HAZE THROUGHOUT DAY.
SCT IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THUR NIGHT INTO FRI EXPECT MORE OF
THE SAME WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY DUE TO FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

SUPER HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO FEED AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ETA FCSTS
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ALL DAY...MEANING
VALUES OF AROUND 2 HANGING IN ALL DAY. THIS SHUD PROVIDE THE FUEL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...TO MID 70S
IN SOME PLACES...IT WILL FEEL LIKE FLORIDA.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SVRL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW RIPPLING ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE MOST POTENT SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE OLD TROPICAL UPPER LOW THAT WENT ASHORE IN THE GULF A FEW DAYS
AGO. MODELS TAKE THIS QUICKLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AS A WEAKENING
FEATURE. AS THE LEFT EXIT OF A JET STREAK ASSOC WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES
AND SHUD BE PLENTY TO TAP THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ALOFT ARE A
TAD STRONGER THAN WED SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHUD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A
PROBLEM...HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AND THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS. AREAS THAT GOT HIT HARD THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT AT
THIS HOUR I SEE NO ONE AREA THAT WOULD BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN SO
NO AREA REALLY TO FAVOR FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

MODELS COMING INTO SOME SORT OF ACCORD NOW WITH DRYING THINGS OUT
STEADILY STARTING TOMORROW. DROPPED POPS OFF QUITE A BIT FRIDAY
DESPITE LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEEN IN BOT ETA AND GFS SUGGESTS SMALLER CHC
OF CONVECTION THAN PREV DAYS...SO I BOUGHT OFF ON BEING A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC. WE SHUD CONTINUE TO SEE DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN SAT
AS UPPER HGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NICE DRY HIGH BEING ALLOWED TO BUILD IN TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MREF SUGGESTS UPPER HGHTS TO SHIFT TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHICH SHUD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CUT IN THE
HUMIDITY. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME RATHER COOL NIGHTS STARTING LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AS FCST THICKNESSES ALSO FCST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
LOW FOR A TIME. DIDNT TWEAK THESE NUMBERS DOWN TOO MUCH AT THIS
HOUR...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW ENSEMBLE MOS BEFORE MAKING ANY REAL
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. DAYSHIFT WILL BE LOOKING AT THESE.

BY TUE/WED WE SEE THICKNESS AND HGHTS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. MREF
SUGGESTS WE STAY CLOSE TO THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES SO WE SEE A
RETURN TO THE LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION:   BG
SHORT TERM:   LACORTE
LONG TERM:  LACORTE/BG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
426 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-170943-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
426 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS CAUSE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-171838-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-FRANKLIN PA-LANCASTER PA-
LEBANON PA-PERRY PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
439 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. SOME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
TORRENTIAL RAINS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.