Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.AVIATION...
TSRA CAN GIVE BRFLY IFR CONDS TO TAF SITES IN PA UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. TOWARD DAWN...HIER DEWPTS PLUS MOISTURE FROM EVE TSRA CAN
RESULT IN IFR CONDS IN STRATUS AND BR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MAY NOT EXIT UPPER OHIO
VALLEY UNTIL LATE MONDAY PER LATEST ETA AND GFS. LATEST RADAR DATA
SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN A
CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE LOW. THIS CAN RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND
PSBL FLOODING. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. A SECOND
SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL UPPER LOW GOES NORTHEASTWARD...THE POSITION OF
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPSTREAM
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WHICH THE GFS MOS HAS CAPTURED...AND EMBEDDED
SYSTEMS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...15
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-180922-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND GARRETT COUNTY
MARYLAND INTO THIS EVENING. REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN CAUSE
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-030-
WVZ001>003-182000-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FOREST PA-
GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MERCER PA-MUSKINGUM OH-OHIO WV-
TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
AREAS FROM LATROBE...TO INDIANA...TO NEAR FRANKLIN. A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED BETWEEN ZAINESVILLE
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF GENERATING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR...WITH MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
SPOTS...AND IN ADDITION TO RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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