Wildfire in Oregon, August 1 to 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
840 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL SPIN OFF A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT WILL
ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE ELKHORN...WALLOWA...AND SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES MOVING NORTH. THESE STORMS MAY REACH SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTY BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE IN 1-2 HOURS. SUNDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CASCADES AND OVER CENTRAL OREGON TO THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS.
THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN OREGON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL
OREGON TO THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT MARINE AIR WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AREAS ALONG THE
CASCADES...INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND KITTITAS
VALLEY...WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. BASIN LOCATIONS AND
THE DESCHUTES PLATEAU WILL SEE WINDS PICKING UP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND INCREASE THE WINDS.
COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PENDLETON (AIRPORT) 061 095 062 092 / 005 005 010 020
WALLA WALLA         066 096 066 094 / 005 005 010 020
TRI-CITIES          061 098 062 095 / 005 005 005 005
YAKIMA              058 095 058 093 / 005 005 005 010
HERMISTON           062 097 062 094 / 005 005 005 010
ELLENSBURG          058 091 058 089 / 005 005 005 010
REDMOND             051 092 052 089 / 020 030 030 020
LA GRANDE           052 093 052 091 / 010 020 020 020
JOHN DAY            058 094 052 091 / 020 020 020 020
THE DALLES          064 093 064 089 / 005 010 010 020
&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004

ORZ041>050-WAZ024>030-011200-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR)-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)-BLUE MOUNTAINS-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA)-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES-KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (WA)-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA)-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

UPDATED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY PERIOD

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS
     CENTRAL OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AGAIN
INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF STORMS WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY.

SMOKE
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
     CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
     (WA), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA), EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
     (OR), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT TONIGHT AS FIRES ALONG THE
CASCADES CONTINUE TO BURN.  VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED THE MOST IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND ALONG THE SE WASHINGTON CASCADES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
          NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL
          OREGON, BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
          HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AGAIN SPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD TO SPARK AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
          EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE
          SOUTHERN CASCADES, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA),
          NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
          (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF
          THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR), BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN,
          OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
          COUNTY

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DIVERGING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION.  STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP SOME STORMS
TRACK OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
          NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL OREGON, BLUE MOUNTAINS,
          OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, WALLOWA COUNTY

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS.  A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OREGON...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE HIGHLANDS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PROTOTYPE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/FORECAST/HWOGRAPHICS/HWOGRAPHICS.PHP

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE G IN
HWOGRAPHICS AND THE G IN HWOGRAPHICS.PHP.