Flash Flood in Oklahoma, March 3 to 4, 2004

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
335 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

ACTIVE 24-36 HOURS SHAPING UP AS POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK POSITIONED FROM SOUTH OF FSM TO NEAR
MLC...SEPARATING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S NORTH WITH LOW 70S
NEAR RED RIVER. EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDER NORTH OF
WARM FRONT WITH JUST A REPORT OR TWO OF SMALL HAIL. WARM FRONT SHOULD
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE THOUGH MIDDLE OF CWA AND WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ
OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SETTING UP
FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS...SO WILL ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THU. SWATH OF 2-4 RAINFALL
LIKELY...STILL APPEARS THAT WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN I44 CORRIDOR AND
ROUGHLY FSM-MLC LINE...BUT CANT RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE.

EXPLOSIVE SFC CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST OVER WEST TX THU AFTERNOON WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN OK BY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND PLACE US IN WARM SECTOR
THU AFTERNOON. FCST SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT
SPECTACULAR...LIKELY DUE TO EXTENSIVE ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER. BUT...WIND PROFILES LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LINEAR MCS BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z THU-03Z FRI.
COULD GET A FEW BL-ROOTED STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN COMPLEX OVER SE OK
THU AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF LIMITED SFC HEATING DUE TO VERY STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING. ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE HIGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS SFC
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY SLIGHTLY BACKED MOST OF THE DAY. COULD BE A
VERY INTERESTING DAY THURSDAY.

FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS THURSDAY AS WELL. MIN
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT OKLAHOMA COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z OR
SHORTLY AFTER. MAY NEED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN ARKANSAS INTO
EARLY THU NIGHT. DRY SLIT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF PRECIP.

MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS WELL NE OF ARE BY FRIDAY...BUT SECONDARY WAVE
DROPS SE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LIKELY
KEEPING SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE.

NICE DAY IN STORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SFC WINDS SHIFTING
OUT OF THE SW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT THOUGH OUR AREA BY 12Z SUN. KEPT FORECAST DRY AS MAIN ENERGY
WILL STAY WELL NE...HOWEVER DROPPED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    49   62   48   53 / 100  100   70   20
FSM    56   71   54   57 /  80  100   80   20
MLC    59   70   52   57 /  90  100   50   20
BVO    45   57   44   52 / 100  100   70   20
FYV    54   66   52   53 / 100  100   80   20
BYV    51   66   51   53 / 100  100   90   20
MKO    54   67   51   56 / 100  100   70   20
MIO    47   59   44   53 / 100  100   90   20
F10    54   65   48   56 / 100  100   50   20
HHW    64   73   56   62 /  80  100   40   20

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053>076.

SULLIVAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH PIECES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS THE
WARM FRONT NOSES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  NORTH OF
THE FRONT ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN
STRENGTHENS.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING.  AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  STRONG WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH CAPES OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A 90 TO 100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX COMBINED
WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  AS A SURFACE DRYLINE
ADVANCES EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN END QUICKLY AFTER THE DRYLINE PASSES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...SETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTLOOKED PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR
AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.