Hail in Ohio, May 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1255 PM EST MON MAY 17 2004

.AVIATION...
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH LOW LOW
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A SOUTH BEND TO
MARION LINE.  THUS...HAVE INCLUDED STORMS IN A TEMPO GROUP AT FWA
UNTIL 21Z.  PROFILER AND 88D WINDS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40KT WITH THE
STORMS...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED HIGHER GUSTS IN
FWA TAF WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SBN...STARTING AROUND 22Z...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY WORDING.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT SBN
BY DAYBREAK AND FWA A FEW HOURS LATER AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
REGION.  ASIDE FROM MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
THUNDER...POSSIBLY IFR...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. ETA AND
MESOETA ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND NGM ARE. BY
0Z...ETA/MESOETA HAVE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHEREAS
GFS/NGM HAVE IT THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA. WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THEN BY 12Z TUESDAY THE MODELS COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVING THE FRONT RIGHT THROUGH THE VERY
NORTHWESTERN PART OF INDIANA. MOS HAS LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IT WAS IN THE
FORECAST SO KEPT IT GOING. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER AND CLOSER WITH THE NORTHWESTERN
PART BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS LOOKED STILL
LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 TODAY.

LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE WAVERING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVING ALONG IT. STILL APPEARS
FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUE NITE INTO WED FOR A DRY FORECAST
FAR NORTH AND CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF MI COUNTIES FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO SMOOTH OUT WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
&&

BARJENBRUCH/BML/RES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
516 AM EST MON MAY 17 2004

CORRECTED TYPO

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-181015-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN MI-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-CASS MI-
CASS IN-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-FULTON IN-
GRANT IN-HENRY OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
LA PORTE IN-LAGRANGE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-
PULASKI IN-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE IN-WHITLEY IN-
WILLIAMS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...ARCHBOLD...AUBURN...
BENTON HARBOR...BENTON HEIGHTS...BERNE...BLUFFTON...BREMEN...BRYAN...
BUCHANAN...BUTLER...COLDWATER...COLUMBIA CITY...DECATUR...DEFIANCE...
DELPHOS...DOWAGIAC...DUNKIRK...DUNLAP...ELKHART...FAIR PLAIN...
FAIRMOUNT...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT WAYNE...GARRETT...GAS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...GOSHEN...GRANGER...GRISSOM AFB...GULIVOIRE PARK...
HARTFORD CITY...HICKSVILLE...HILLSDALE...HUNTINGTON...KENDALLVILLE...
KNOX...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...LIGONIER...LIMA...LOGANSPORT...MARION...
MICHIGAN CITY...MISHAWAKA...MONTICELLO...MONTPELIER...NAPOLEON...
NAPPANEE...NEW HAVEN...NILES...NORTH MANCHESTER...OSSIAN...OTTAWA...
PERU...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...ROCHESTER...SIMONTON LAKE...
SOUTH BEND...ST. JOSEPH...STURGIS...SWANTON...SYRACUSE...
THREE RIVERS...TRAIL CREEK...TRI-LAKES...UPLAND...VAN WERT...
WABASH...WARSAW...WAUSEON...WESTVILLE...WINAMAC AND WINONA LAKE
516 AM EST MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DEFIANCE TO FORT WAYNE AND LOGANSPORT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LOGANSPORT TO WARSAW TO BRYAN OHIO.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TIMING AND SPECIFIC THREATS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX