High Surf in New Jersey, August 3 to 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OUR IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ON
THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE TONIGHT.
WEVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.  WHILE THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, WEVE ALSO INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING THERE.  FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WEVE SIMPLY MENTIONED SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AND NOTHING OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH WELL MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MORNING AS WELL IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ON THE OCEAN WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FROM
ALEX.  THE BIG STORY FOR US IS ACTUALLY THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO NEAR
OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY, SO WEVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING US A TASTE OF AUTUMN
FOR THE WEEKEND.  SHORT WAVES WILL GRADUALLY WORK AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG MORE DEEPLY OVER THE EASTERN STATES
DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL BE OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND.  WITH THE
COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WEVE MENTIONED SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS AND IN SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MORNING STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AT EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY NIGHTTIME.  OVER SOUTHERN TAF SITES ACY AND MIV, WILL
INCLUDE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUPS.  MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANED,
BUT MAY REINTENSIFY AS A FOCAL POINT HAS FORMED OVER OUR DELMAR
ZONES AND THIS CUD PUSH NORTHWARD AT LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WILL FORECAST VSBYS TO DRP TO MVFR VALUES AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH TAF SITES
09Z-13Z.  THEN, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN MAINLY TO VFR MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT HEADLINE FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE PUSHED BACK A BIT TO TUESDAY, SINCE WAVEWATCH DOES
NOT INCREASE THE SEAS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER, SWELLS WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT WAVEWATCH INDICATES, HENCE THE
TUESDAY HEADLINE.  OTHERWISE, AS PREVIOUSLY, WE STILL LOOK FOR
TROPICAL STORM ALEX TO LIFT NE AND OUT TO SEA TO OUR EAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEN, THE GFS AND ETA DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER AS
WELL AS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, PARTICULARLY THE GFS AS IT IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SOME
TYPE OF LOW/FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MD...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-030835-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
437 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES FROM AROUND
MANASQUAN NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WN/MPD