Flash Flood in New Jersey, August 21, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

DISC: HVY(R) PCPN IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SLOWLY E WHILE THE CELLS ARE
MOVING TO THE NE AND TRAINING. WITH THAT...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 4 PM. SMALL BASIN IS NEARING FF GUIDANCE, SO PERHAPS
SOME WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES ARE
BECOMING PC-MC OVER EXTREME ERN NJ AND DE SO THIS MAY LIMIT THREAT
OF STRONGER TSTMS.

GLANCE AT OUR HIGHS ON FRI SHOWED OUR HIGHEST TEMPS TO BE 95 IN
MEDIA PA, 94 AT VALLEY FORGE PA AND HARRISON NJ, 93 AT WEST CHESTER
PA AND BLACKBIRD NEW CASTLE CO DE.

OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE YA

J EBERWINE

***************

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ EARLIER WITH 2-3 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEP FORMING TO
THE SW AND WERE TRAINING OVER THE AREA. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY
FLOOD WARNINGS UP TO THIS TIME...ADDITONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE FLOODING. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
BUOY 40025 SHOW 5 FT SEAS WITH S WINDS 18G22 KTS. WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN SPEEDS UNTIL AFTER FROPA. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...REGIONAL RADARS DEPICT AREA OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT KRDG AND KABE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN
SITES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUFKIT PROFILES WERE BROAD
BRUSHING A 10 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER MOST SITES TODAY. I
DECIDED TO USE TEMPO GROUPS WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE PERIOD
SURROUNDING FROPA. VFR/MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND FROPA THEN
BECOMING SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND THIS EVENING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES PAZ054-055-060>062 UNTIL 200 PM TODAY.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NJZ001-007 UNTIL 200 PM TODAY.
MD...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ZONES ANZ431-450>455.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RNS
AVIATION/MARINE...OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - UPDATE FOR MODERATE RIP TIDE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-221000-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP TIDES TODAY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTS.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON, MONROE, BERKS, LEHIGH AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR SUSSEX AND WARREN
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNPOURS CAN ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST CROSSING NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY SUNSHINE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST
MARYLAND, DELAWARE, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA OR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, THEN THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     HATFIELD                40.28N 75.30W
08/21/2004  62 MPH           MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PART OF ROOF AND GUTTER BLOWN OFF HOUSE. AREA WITHOUT
            POWER.

&&

LSN