Funnel Cloud in Missouri, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

FRONT HAS SETTLED INTO THE OZARKS AS MODELS ADVERTIZED YESTERDAY.
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS NORTH
MO THIS EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST MO
LATE TONIGHT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ETA PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN AR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER JET WAS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MORNING
WITH A JET CORE OF 80 KTS OVER SOUTHERN AZ. SOUTHWESTERN U.S. JET
WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ETA, GFS AND UKMET VERY SIMILAR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE ETA
FORECASTING TREEMENDOUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHEAST/EAST MO
BY LATE EVENING.  INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE WRF MODEL OUT OF NCAR IS
FORECASTING A LARGE BOW ECHO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MO BY
00Z AND THEN REACHING THE STL METRO AREA LATE EVENING.  THIS
MOVEMENT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ETA RUN. THE SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH SUNDAYS RUN WITH HUGE AREA OF 40 K INDEX
ACROSS NORTHWEST MO BY THIS EVENING WITH THE ETA PLACING A SMALLER
BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO. BY 06Z, ETA FORECASTS A
BAND OF 40-45 KS ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE CENTER
INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND, THE 24/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AT 500 AND THE SURFACE.  CLOSED H5 LOW
IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING, EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LIE ACROSS MO WITH BOTH MODELS
FORECASTING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE
.IL...NONE

EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS
PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDSTL TO AFDLSX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

ILZ058-095>098-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-050>052-251200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-GREENE IL-KNOX-
LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
330 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBIA TO
ELSBERRY MISSOURI TO PALMYRA ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH TODAY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL AND EXPECTED. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STORM SPOTTERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ILZ059-060-099-100-MOZ047>049-059>064-251200-
COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONITEAU-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-ST CHARLES-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-WARREN-330
330 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LYNN MISSOURI THROUGH ST. LOUIS TO LITCHFIELD
ILLINOIS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-101-102-MOZ065-072>075-084-085-099-251200-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-
MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-
STE GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
330 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

ACQUAVIVA/SCHROEDER