Hail in Minnesota, May 26, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
CWA.  FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY 23Z ALONG
A CONVERGENCE LINE IN CENTRAL SD.  AS NOTED BY SPC...SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH CELLS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DUE TO VERY COLD
MID LEVELS.  SOME HAIL LARGER THAN AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
SHEAR VALUES OVER 40 KTS MAY SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE..TROF WILL ROLL THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END
WITH HEATING BY 10 OR 11 PM. THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH SW
MN TOWARD DAWN.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. STALLING
NEAR THE SRN END OF THE CWA.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHILE MID 60S
ARE LIKELY AROUND MARSHALL WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW.  OTHERWISE
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.  ON THU NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE CWA.  WITH THE RIDGING IN THE EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE NE CWA.  IN THE WRN
CWA...SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY.  THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 60.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AS THE LLJ
INCREASES OVER THE CWA.  THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A RAPID INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS.  THEN...AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES IN WRN SD...A WARM FRONT
SHOULD FORM AROUND I90.  WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE SO WILL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS HELPING TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WRN CAW.
EXPECT THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WARM FRONT IN THE K9V9 AND KHON AREA AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES.  THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR THAT IF STORMS DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT.  THE CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL END
DURING THE EVENING IN THE NW CWA  BUT FRONT HANGS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE NRN CWA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FROM BKX TO MML AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY.  HAVE
FOLLOWED THE ETA FOR THE FRONTAL PROPAGATION ON SATURDAY.  WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE.  SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER BUT STRONG LEAD WAVE SHOULD HELP
IGNITE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE
BEST CHANCE OF WILL BE IN THE EVENING IN THE WRN CWA...SHIFTING INTO
THE NRN CWA TOWARD SUNSET. AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT.  THEN IT COULD TRANSITION INTO
HEAVY RAIN AS TRAINING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

IN THE EXTENDED...FEEL THE GFS IS WAY TOO FAST IS CRASHING THE RIDGE
TOO QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.  THEREFORE EXPECT FROPA TO BE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WEST AND SUNDAY EVENING IN THE ERN CWA.  NW IA COULD EVEN DRY
SLOT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN SW MN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN..AS FRONT MOVES TO THE
EAST...EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.  THUS KEPT A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.  WITH CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS
BELOW 10C...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 60S.  IF CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60.  CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
AGAIN OCCUR ON TUES IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  THEN EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1201 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-271200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
WAGNER SOUTH DAKOTA TO HURON SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD
BE LARGE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER. HOWEVER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
EARLY TIME...THE MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LEANING
TOWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 500 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
701 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             SIOUX FALLS             43.54N 96.73W
05/26/2004  0.75 INCH        MINNEHAHA          SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT DUNHAM PARK IN SOUTHWEST SIOUX FALLS.

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
714 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             SIOUX FALLS             43.54N 96.73W
05/26/2004  0.75 INCH        MINNEHAHA          SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT 12TH AND WESTERN AVENUES.

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
721 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             8 NW PIPESTONE          44.08N 96.43W
05/26/2004  0.88 INCH        PIPESTONE          MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 30 MPH WINDS.

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
736 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             7 N PIPESTONE           44.10N 96.31W
05/26/2004  0.75 INCH        PIPESTONE          MN   PUBLIC

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
742 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             2 SW HOLLAND            44.07N 96.22W
05/26/2004  0.75 INCH        PIPESTONE          MN   PUBLIC

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
752 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             HOLLAND                 44.09N 96.19W
05/26/2004  0.75 INCH        PIPESTONE          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HEITKAMP