Flood in Kentucky, September 8 to 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM WED SEP 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF TD FRANCES WAS LOCATED
IN EXTREME SRN W/VA AT 20Z. HEAVY RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME MODERATE RAIN STILL IN OUR NRN
COUNTIES BUT THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA HAS ONLY LIGHT RETURNS OR NONE
AT ALL. AM NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELED
FFAJKL. WILL HANDLE CURRENT HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH WARNINGS.
CLOUDS...VERY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AND DWPTS IN THE MID
60S SHOULD INDICATE OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY BREAK
UP LATE THU...JUST IN TIME TO KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BUT LET LOWS DROP.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF FRANCES AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THE GFS CLOSELY. MAV TEMPS USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. WITH WINDS
FALLING OFF AND NEVER REALLY GOT ANY HIGH WINDS...THE VALLEYS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETAIN THE HIGH RH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THU NITE/FRI
MORN WILL SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. FOG SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE MORNING ON FRI AND
WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD. WEAK
TROF TO CROSS THE OH VLY SUN. NOT ENUF DYNAMICS TO WARRANT MUCH POP
BUT HAVE INCLUDED VERY SLGHT CHC IN A FEW OF OUR MOST NRN COUNTIES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN GRIDS.

EXTENDED APPEARS DRY AND SEASONABLE. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE HURRC IVAN. WIDE SPREAD OF AVAILABLE TRACKS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. WILL NOT INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR POP NEXT WED UNTIL THE
TRACK BECOMES MORE STABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1226 PM WED SEP 8 2004

UPDATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR TODAY. RAIN TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. KNOCKED POPS
DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR DOWN THERE...COULD STILL SEE SOME NEW
ACTIVITY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS CENTER OF FRANCES REMNANTS
APPROACHES...BUT DONT ANTICIPATE ENOUGHT ACTIVITY FORMING TO
WARRANT LEAVING IN 100 POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS
AS YOU GO NORTHWARD THROUGH CWA...LEAVING IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...AS RAINSHIELD STILL COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ALSO TOOK DOWN WINDS AND GUSTS FOR TODAY...AS
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ORIGINALLY FORECAST 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARENT
GOING TO MATERIALIZE.SURROUNDING OBS SUGGESTING WINDS ONLY GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 IN ISOLATED SPOTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWERED POPS AND LESSER EXTENT AND DURATION OF
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF CWA. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

755 AM WED SEP 8 2004

THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM FRANCES IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND ALSO FOLLOWING A TRACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR EASTERN KY TO
RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8
PM TONIGHT.  SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 5 INCHES PLUS.  I PREDICT
THAT SOME AREAS WILL BEGIN HAVING PROBLEMS DURING DAY SHIFT.  BEST
MODEL WITH THE LOW IS ACTUALLY THE NGM...WHICH HAS A TRACK FASTER
AND MORE NORTHWEST THAN THE OTHERS.  MODEL OF CHOICE ON THURSDAY
CHANGES TO THE MESOETA...WHICH DOES MUCH BETTER WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LAG
BEHIND TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND WENT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS THAN WHAT AVN MOS IS ADVERTISING.  AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WIND CALMS DOWN...FOG
SHOULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF DRYING BEFORE NIGHTFALL.  DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO BE
FAIRLY PREVALENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...CONSIDERING WHERE TEMPS ARE STARTING OUT AND VERY THICK
CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL.  FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE TO LOCK IN
CLOUDS TOMORROW AND ENOUGH LIFT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.  ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HELD ON TO
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY IN GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM THIS
EVENING...ELLIOTT...MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...POWELL
AND WOLFE.

&&

DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...FRANCES REMNANTS MAY CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY CREATING A FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  FRANCES REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...TAKING WITH
IT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE.  THE INGREDIENTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY COME TOGETHER THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CREATE THE WIDESPREAD FOG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

OUDEMAN/HEINLEIN