Flood in Kentucky, September 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH WORDING IN FOURTH LINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1226 PM WED SEP 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR TODAY. RAIN TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. KNOCKED POPS
DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR DOWN THERE...COULD STILL SEE SOME NEW ACTIVITY
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS CENTER OF FRANCES REMNANTS APPROACHES...BUT
DONT ANTICIPATE ENOUGHT ACTIVITY FORMING TO WARRANT LEAVING IN 100
POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS AS YOU GO NORTHWARD
THROUGH CWA...LEAVING IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
LIKELY POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...AS RAINSHIELD STILL
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ALSO
TOOK DOWN WINDS AND GUSTS FOR TODAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ORIGINALLY FORECAST 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARENT GOING TO
MATERIALIZE.SURROUNDING OBS SUGGESTING WINDS ONLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20
IN ISOLATED SPOTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOWERED POPS AND LESSER EXTENT AND DURATION OF RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF CWA. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

755 AM WED SEP 8 2004

THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM FRANCES IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND ALSO FOLLOWING A TRACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR EASTERN KY TO
RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8
PM TONIGHT.  SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 5 INCHES PLUS.  I PREDICT
THAT SOME AREAS WILL BEGIN HAVING PROBLEMS DURING DAY SHIFT.  BEST
MODEL WITH THE LOW IS ACTUALLY THE NGM...WHICH HAS A TRACK FASTER
AND MORE NORTHWEST THAN THE OTHERS.  MODEL OF CHOICE ON THURSDAY
CHANGES TO THE MESOETA...WHICH DOES MUCH BETTER WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LAG
BEHIND TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND WENT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS THAN WHAT AVN MOS IS ADVERTISING.  AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WIND CALMS DOWN...FOG
SHOULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF DRYING BEFORE NIGHTFALL.  DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO BE
FAIRLY PREVALENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...CONSIDERING WHERE TEMPS ARE STARTING OUT AND VERY THICK
CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL.  FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE TO LOCK IN
CLOUDS TOMORROW AND ENOUGH LIFT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.  ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HELD ON TO
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY IN GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.

215 PM TUE SEP 7 2004

CURRENT SFC CHART (17Z) HAS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES JUST SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS GA. SFC WINDS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE BEST WINDS
20G25 ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. RAIN HAS BEEN RATHER HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN AND EVEN THE NWRN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. AT
12Z THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 4+ IN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SRN GA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH SO SHOULD THE RAIN.
CURRENT THINKING IS 1-3 IN WITH THE BEST RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ERN
COUNTIES AND THIS IS OVER ABOUT AN 18HR PERIOD. CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASIN SEEMS PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR FLOODING. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING AND WHILE OUR NRN BLUEGRASS REGION MAY NOT BE IN THE
GREATEST RISK AREA...STILL FEEL THAT A PROLONGED EVENT WILL CREATE
HIGH WATER ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY
WITH THE BETTER BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE UNIFORM
WITH A GRADIENT FROM HIGHEST EAST TO LOWEST WEST.

MODELS CONTINUE THE TRACK OF FRANCES TO THE NORTH UNTIL OVER ERN KY
WHEN THE NRN TROF FINALLY PICKS IT UP AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE. BY
12Z THU THE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR PIT AND BY 12Z FRI ALMOST OUT OF NRN
NY. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TD RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THU AM AND CLOUDS
INTO THU PM. THEN CLEARING AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. MAV
TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR. WILL REVISIT THE
PROBLEM OF MORNING FOG AFTER FRANCES IS NO LONGER A FACTOR IN OUR
WX. WITH NOT A STRONG SYSTEM TO SCOUR OUT OUR VALLEYS WE WILL LIKELY
ENCOUNTER OUR TYPICAL VALLEY FOG. FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VLY
ON TUE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RH TO WORK WITH AND FEEL IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CLOUD FCST IN ERN KY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8
PM TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...BATH...ELLIOTT...MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...POWELL..
.ROWAN...AND WOLFE.

&&

RICHEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...FRANCES REMNANTS MAY CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY CREATING A FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  FRANCES REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...TAKING WITH
IT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE.  THE INGREDIENTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY COME TOGETHER THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CREATE THE WIDESPREAD FOG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

OUDEMAN/HEINLEIN