Flood in Kentucky, September 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM TUE SEP 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SFC CHART (17Z) HAS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES JUST SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS GA. SFC WINDS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE BEST WINDS
20G25 ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. RAIN HAS BEEN RATHER HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN AND EVEN THE NWRN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. AT
12Z THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 4+ IN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SRN GA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH SO SHOULD THE RAIN.
CURRENT THINKING IS 1-3 IN WITH THE BEST RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ERN
COUNTIES AND THIS IS OVER ABOUT AN 18HR PERIOD. CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASIN SEEMS PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR FLOODING. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING AND WHILE OUR NRN BLUEGRASS REGION MAY NOT BE IN THE
GREATEST RISK AREA...STILL FEEL THAT A PROLONGED EVENT WILL CREATE
HIGH WATER ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY
WITH THE BETTER BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE UNIFORM
WITH A GRADIENT FROM HIGHEST EAST TO LOWEST WEST.

MODELS CONTINUE THE TRACK OF FRANCES TO THE NORTH UNTIL OVER ERN KY
WHEN THE NRN TROF FINALLY PICKS IT UP AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE. BY
12Z THU THE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR PIT AND BY 12Z FRI ALMOST OUT OF NRN
NY. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TD RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THU AM AND CLOUDS
INTO THU PM. THEN CLEARING AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. MAV
TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR. WILL REVISIT THE
PROBLEM OF MORNING FOG AFTER FRANCES IS NO LONGER A FACTOR IN OUR
WX. WITH NOT A STRONG SYSTEM TO SCOUR OUT OUR VALLEYS WE WILL LIKELY
ENCOUNTER OUR TYPICAL VALLEY FOG. FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VLY
ON TUE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RH TO WORK WITH AND FEEL IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CLOUD FCST IN ERN KY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1119 AM TUE SEP 7 2004

SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CWFA...AND HAVE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR THIS. ALSO WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH AND WILL SEND AN UPDATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. THE 06Z GFS AND 06Z ETA BOTH VERIFIED GOOD WITH 12Z
PLACEMENT OF FRANCES. BOTH MODELS BRING CENTER OF FRANCES NORTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. QUICK LOOK AT NEW 12Z ETA SHOWS LOW
CENTER IN NE TN AT 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN NEAR PIKEVILLE BY 06Z
THURSDAY. 06Z GFS QUICKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER E...WITH 00Z THURSDAY
PLACEMENT NEAR VA/WV/KY TRISTATE AREA. IN EITHER CASE AM CONCERNED
WITH LOW CENTER PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWFA.
AT THIS POINT A GENERAL ONE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR OUR CWFA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAR EAST AND
SOUTH. THIS AGREES WITH HPC AND RFC THINKING AT THIS POINT.

755 AM TUE SEP 7 2004

MOISTURE IS OBVIOUSLY MOVING NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...SO
POPS HAVE BEEN MOVED UP SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.  MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM FRANCES IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE GFS HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND THE PRECIP FIELD
SEEMED TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AS FAR AS PLACEMENT IS CONCERNED.
SINCE THERE IS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING...THIS SHOULD ONLY AID IN
PRECIP PRODUCTION OVER OUR AREA.  EVEN THOUGH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH...THINKING THAT
WE HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH AT LEAST MINIMAL FLOOD GUIDANCE DURING A
24 HOUR PERIOD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND WED
AFTERNOON.  THE ETA IS DOING HORRIBLY AND PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED
THIS MODEL COMPLETELY.  MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE EXTENDED IS ESSENTIALLY KEPT THE SAME AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

1057 PM MON SEP 6 2004

ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS EVENING WAS TO ZONE PRODUCT...DONE TO
ELIMINATE MIDNIGHT WORDING AND OTHERWISE FRESHEN TIMING TIMING OF
FIRST PERIOD. ALL ELEMENTS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...SO NO NEW GRIDS
NEED BE SENT TONIGHT. MAINLY UPSLOPE PRECIP TO THE SE IS
FADING...AND A COUPLE OF ECHOES THAT SHOWED UP IN THE NORTHERN
CWA...PROBABLY DUE TO SW ROTATING SE TO NW THOUGH AREA...WERE
QUICKLY HERE AND GONE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA 8 PM
TONIGHT TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
512 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...FRANCES REMNANTS MAY CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY CREATING A FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  FRANCES REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...TAKING WITH
IT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE.  THE INGREDIENTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY COME TOGETHER THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CREATE THE WIDESPREAD FOG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

OUDEMAN/HEINLEIN