Flooding in Kentucky, September 18 to 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 AM SAT SEP 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS ON SKY AND TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD GO A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1027 PM FRI SEP 17 2004

RAIN HAS ENDED...IN FACT THE TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUDS HAS STARTED TO
BREAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWFA. IN SPITE OF ALL THE
RAIN MUCH DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO REGION AND WINDS TO REMAIN IN 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. SAT NIGHT WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY. UPDATE TO REMOVE RAIN...EVENING WORDING AND MOST
GUSTS. TEMPS LOOK WITHIN REASON SO NO CHANGES THERE.

507 PM FRI SEP 17 2004

HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE PAST 24 HOURS IS COMING TO AN END AS THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN PUSHES TO THE EAST. FLOODING STILL A PROBLEM OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOWING UP IN WATER VAPOR...SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EASTERN COUNTIES. PRECIP THAT IS LEFT IS ENDING VERY
QUICKLY...SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN FIRST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RADAR
STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR THE WEST...SLIGHT POPS
IN THE CNTRL AREAS AND CHANCE...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. BUT
LEFT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE WITH GUSTY...10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. WITH
THAT MUCH MIXING...THOUGHTS ARE THAT FOG WILL NOT HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP ONCE PRECIP ENDS. WITH CLEARING AND DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT...ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

NICE...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE GREATER PART OF THE FCST. WHAT
IS LEFT OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. EARLIER
FCSTS HAD IVAN RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THAT IS NO LONGER A
CONCERN. FCST MOVEMENT OF JEANNE IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS TO
REMAIN OFF THE U.S. COAST...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. FOR
NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE PICTURE. THEREFORE...ONLY CONCERN IN EXTENDED
WAS A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST SOMETIME NEXT WED OR
THUR. BROUGHT IN CHANCE OF POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

726 AM FRI SEP 17 2004

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HANDLING WHAT
REMAINS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THEM UP UNTIL NOW. ONE DIFFERENCE WHICH DOES REMAIN IS THE QPF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND ITS RECENT HISTORY WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE ETA IS TOO LIGHT. THE GFS IS PROBABLY A
BETTER REPRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HEAVY.

THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY AN ETA/GFS COMPROMISE TO TRACK
FROM E TN THIS MORNING NE TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY E
TONIGHT...BEFORE GOING SOUTH INTO NC ON SATURDAY. OF MOST
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIP TODAY. AN ETA AND GFS COMPROMISE SUGGESTS
THE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS
TENDS TO HOLD ONTO IT LONGER IN THE EAST...AND HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION. WITH FLOODING STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN SOME COUNTIES
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN STILL TO FALL...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH
UP UNTIL THE TIME THAT RAIN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF.

HAVE HAD SOME STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING
JUST TO OUR EAST WE WILL SEE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THEY
LOOK MARGINAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND HAVE USED ONE ON OUR
WESTERN FRINGE TODAY.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WE SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW...WITH SUNSHINE OR
PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
TAKES CONTROL. THE FAIR WEATHER THEN LASTS INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WOULD SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THIS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE
RUNNING HIGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLOOD            WEST LIBERTY            37.91N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 1611 UNDER WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            14 ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
09/17/2004                   MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RIVER ROAD AND ROUTE 7 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
09/17/2004                   BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CANNEL CITY, SOUR SPRINGS, AND MCCARTY ROADS ALL CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0802 PM     FLOOD            CUTSHIN                 37.09N 83.26W
09/17/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 699 UNDER WATER.

0800 PM     FLOOD            1 N WEST LIBERTY        37.93N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 7 NEAR WEST LIBERTY CLOSED DUE TO A MUDSLIDE.
            DETOUR AROUND MUDSLIDE ON ROUTE 1161 NOW CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

0755 PM     FLOOD            BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
09/17/2004                   KNOX               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 229 BLOCKED DUE TO HIGH WATER. STINKING CREEK AND
            LITTLE BRUSH CREEK ROADS ALSO FLOODED.

0752 PM     FLOOD            LEVI JACKSON WILDERNESS 37.08N 84.04W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS STILL CLOSED INCLUDING HIGHWAY 1006, COURT
            ROAD, HIGHWAYS 638 AND 578, AND VICTORY GREEN MOUNT ROAD.

0750 PM     FLOOD            MOUNT VERNON            37.36N 84.34W
09/17/2004                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 1329 IN MOUNT VERNON AND LIVINGSTON CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER. HIGHWAY 1912 AND HIGHWAY 1955 AT RED HILL
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0745 PM     FLOOD            BOWEN                   37.84N 83.77W
09/17/2004                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGHWAY 11 CLOSED DUE TO 3 FEET OF WATER ON ROAD.

0745 PM     FLOOD            PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
09/17/2004                   JOHNSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 825 UNDERWATER.

&&

AR