Flood in Kentucky, September 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
726 AM FRI SEP 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HANDLING WHAT
REMAINS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THEM UP UNTIL NOW. ONE DIFFERENCE WHICH DOES REMAIN IS THE QPF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND ITS RECENT HISTORY WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE ETA IS TOO LIGHT. THE GFS IS PROBABLY A
BETTER REPRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HEAVY.

THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY AN ETA/GFS COMPROMISE TO TRACK
FROM E TN THIS MORNING NE TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY E
TONIGHT...BEFORE GOING SOUTH INTO NC ON SATURDAY. OF MOST
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIP TODAY. AN ETA AND GFS COMPROMISE SUGGESTS
THE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS
TENDS TO HOLD ONTO IT LONGER IN THE EAST...AND HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION. WITH FLOODING STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN SOME COUNTIES
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN STILL TO FALL...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH
UP UNTIL THE TIME THAT RAIN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF.

HAVE HAD SOME STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING
JUST TO OUR EAST WE WILL SEE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THEY
LOOK MARGINAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND HAVE USED ONE ON OUR
WESTERN FRINGE TODAY.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WE SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW...WITH SUNSHINE OR
PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
TAKES CONTROL. THE FAIR WEATHER THEN LASTS INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WOULD SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THIS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

620 PM THU SEP 16 2004

WHAT A DAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS...MODELS ARE HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DETAILS...IN PARTICULAR QPF AMOUNTS...AS
THE REMNANTS OF IVAN MOVES MORE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
12Z GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. IF THIS PANS OUT THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS...WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
SYSTEM...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
BUT AM HESITANT TO GO TOO FAR IN THAT DIRECTION WITH ONLY THE LATEST
RUN ADVERTISING THIS. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE HIGH
PWS...AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAIN.

EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...THE FINAL RESULT WILL BE TO DECREASE PRECIP
TOTALS A BIT...AND DECREASE POPS SOONER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO STALL OUT FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST...BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW.

A LITTLE CAUTIOUS WITH THE EXTENDED AS THIS UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
HANG AROUND IN THE GENERAL VICINITY...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
JEANNE.  THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED...AND INCREASED POPS FOR THU TO CHC WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS.  LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPS OR SKY
FORECAST.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-109-111-
112-114-116...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR KYZ088-107-110-
113-115-117>120...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR KYZ044-050-051-
068-079-083.
&&

HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
459 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120-171100-
BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-
KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-
MCCREARY KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-WHITLEY KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BOONEVILLE...HARLAN...
HAZARD...HINDMAN...HYDEN...INEZ...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...
MIDDLESBORO...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
SALYERSVILLE...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
459 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN TRACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

AREA LAKES MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A RISK OF RIVER
FLOODING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AREA LAKES MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH THROUGH 9 PM EDT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE...INCLUDING REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ROAD
CLOSURES...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111-171100-
BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-JACKSON KY-LEE KY-MENIFEE KY-
MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-
WAYNE KY-WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEATTYVILLE...CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...
FRENCHBURG...IRVINE...MCKEE...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...
MOUNT STERLING...MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
SOMERSET...STANTON AND WEST LIBERTY
459 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY   RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A RISK OF RIVER
FLOODING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE...INCLUDING REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ROAD
CLOSURES...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLOOD            VICTORY                 37.26N 84.10W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOWING WATER OVER THE ROAD WASHED CAR
            OFF OF PAVEMENT.

0702 AM     FLOOD            VICTORY                 37.26N 84.10W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RUNNING THROUGH HOME ON VICTORY ROAD JUST OFF OF
            HIGHWAY 490.

&&

PIEPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ESTILL                  37.46N 82.82W
09/17/2004                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN IN IRVINE...ONE KNOCKED OUT POWER IN
            IRVINE...AND BLOCKED ROAD.

0600 AM     FLOOD            IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLEAR CREEK...DARK HOLLOW...AND MURPHYS CREEK ROADS ALL
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

PIEPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     FLOOD            1 E MOORE HILL          36.93N 84.06W
09/17/2004                   KNOX               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 FOOT OF WATER OVER BRIDGE AT CENTRAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
            IN CORBIN.

&&

PIEPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
958 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLOOD            STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
09/17/2004                   POWELL             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONGOING FLOODING THROUGHOUT POWELL COUNTY. NUMEROUS ROADS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOWING WATER...INCLUDING HWY 77 AT
            NADA...ADAMS RIDGE ROAD IN CLAY CITY...HWY 599 ALONG CANE
            CREEK...AND HWY 1057 ALONG HARDWICK CREEK.

0910 AM     FLOOD            LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   NEWSPAPER

            ONGOING FLOODING OF NUMEROUS ROADS IN THE LONDON
            AREA...INCLUDING MAIN STREET...KY 80E...KY 538 AT OAK
            CREEK...KY 192 BYPASS...ENTERPRISE LANE...AND TOBACCO
            ROAD

0922 AM     FLOOD            SALT LICK               38.12N 83.62W
09/17/2004                   BATH               KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HWY 211S IN SALT LICK IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. WATER
            ALSO REPORTED OVER PISTOL RD AND PINEGROVE RD NEAR
            OLYMPIA.

0940 AM     FLOOD            BELKNAP                 37.72N 83.29W
09/17/2004                   WOLFE              KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MADDIX BRANCH ROAD CLOSED DUE TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF FLOWING
            WATER. BANKS FORK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO 1 TO 1 AND 1 HALF
            INCES OF FLOWING WATER. BOTH ROADS ARE OFF HWY 1094.

&&

MLM