Flooding in Kentucky, September 17 to 19, 2004

Name: Flooding in Kentucky, September 17 to 19, 2004
Start: 2004-09-17T21:15
End: 2004-09-19T02:25
Location: Kentucky

September 17 to 19, 2004 · NWS JKL · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

80 feet above flood stage on 09/18/2004 at 06:00 EST. 30 feet above flood stage on 09/18/2004 at 11:00 EST.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.

The South Fork of the Kentucky River at Booneville crested at 28.80 feet or 1.80 feet above flood stage on 09/18/2004 at 06:00 EST. The Kentucky River at Heidelberg crested at 21.30 feet or 1.30 feet above flood stage on 09/18/2004 at 11:00 EST. The Red River at Clay City crested at 20.03 feet or 1.03 feet above flood stage on 09/18/2004 at 14:00 EST. Widespread heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ivan lead to minor flooding at all three forecast points. The passage of the remnants of Hurricane Frances the week before had left streams at 90% above mean daily stream flow.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 17, 4:08 PM EST, 5 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 4:08 PM EST, 5 hours 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
507 PM FRI SEP 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE PAST 24 HOURS IS COMING TO AN END AS THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN PUSHES TO THE EAST. FLOODING STILL A PROBLEM OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOWING UP IN WATER VAPOR...SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EASTERN COUNTIES. PRECIP THAT IS LEFT IS ENDING VERY
QUICKLY...SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN FIRST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RADAR
STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR THE WEST...SLIGHT POPS
IN THE CNTRL AREAS AND CHANCE...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. BUT
LEFT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE WITH GUSTY...10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. WITH
THAT MUCH MIXING...THOUGHTS ARE THAT FOG WILL NOT HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP ONCE PRECIP ENDS. WITH CLEARING AND DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT...ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

NICE...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE GREATER PART OF THE FCST. WHAT
IS LEFT OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. EARLIER
FCSTS HAD IVAN RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THAT IS NO LONGER A
CONCERN. FCST MOVEMENT OF JEANNE IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS TO
REMAIN OFF THE U.S. COAST...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. FOR
NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE PICTURE. THEREFORE...ONLY CONCERN IN EXTENDED
WAS A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST SOMETIME NEXT WED OR
THUR. BROUGHT IN CHANCE OF POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

726 AM FRI SEP 17 2004

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HANDLING WHAT
REMAINS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THEM UP UNTIL NOW. ONE DIFFERENCE WHICH DOES REMAIN IS THE QPF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND ITS RECENT HISTORY WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE ETA IS TOO LIGHT. THE GFS IS PROBABLY A
BETTER REPRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HEAVY.

THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY AN ETA/GFS COMPROMISE TO TRACK
FROM E TN THIS MORNING NE TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY E
TONIGHT...BEFORE GOING SOUTH INTO NC ON SATURDAY. OF MOST
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIP TODAY. AN ETA AND GFS COMPROMISE SUGGESTS
THE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS
TENDS TO HOLD ONTO IT LONGER IN THE EAST...AND HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION. WITH FLOODING STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN SOME COUNTIES
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN STILL TO FALL...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH
UP UNTIL THE TIME THAT RAIN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF.

HAVE HAD SOME STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING
JUST TO OUR EAST WE WILL SEE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THEY
LOOK MARGINAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND HAVE USED ONE ON OUR
WESTERN FRINGE TODAY.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WE SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW...WITH SUNSHINE OR
PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
TAKES CONTROL. THE FAIR WEATHER THEN LASTS INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WOULD SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THIS.

620 PM THU SEP 16 2004

WHAT A DAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS...MODELS ARE HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DETAILS...IN PARTICULAR QPF AMOUNTS...AS
THE REMNANTS OF IVAN MOVES MORE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
12Z GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. IF THIS PANS OUT THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS...WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
SYSTEM...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
BUT AM HESITANT TO GO TOO FAR IN THAT DIRECTION WITH ONLY THE LATEST
RUN ADVERTISING THIS. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE HIGH
PWS...AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAIN.

EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...THE FINAL RESULT WILL BE TO DECREASE PRECIP
TOTALS A BIT...AND DECREASE POPS SOONER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO STALL OUT FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST...BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW.

A LITTLE CAUTIOUS WITH THE EXTENDED AS THIS UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
HANG AROUND IN THE GENERAL VICINITY...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
JEANNE.  THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED...AND INCREASED POPS FOR THU TO CHC WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS.  LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPS OR SKY
FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RAY

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 6:28 PM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE
RUNNING HIGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS.

DUSTY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 17, 3:17 PM EST, 5 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     FLOOD            IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY BY
            EMERGENCY MGT OFFICIALS THROUGH MORNING FROM 913 AM TO
            1140 AM.

&&

MLM

Local storm report, Sep 17, 6:43 PM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CEDAR CREEK ROAD, DARK HOLLOW ROAD, MURPHYS FORK ROAD ALL
            CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES. 3 TREES DOWN, ONE STRUCK BY
            LIGHTNING, 1 TREE BLOCKING ROAD. POWER OUT IN TOWN.

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VICTORY                 37.26N 84.10W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   UNKNOWN

            WATER RUNNING THROUGH A HOUSE ON VICTORY ROAD OFF HIGHWAY
            490.

0444 PM     FLOOD            MANCHESTER              37.15N 83.77W
09/17/2004                   CLAY               KY   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 80 AND SMALL SIDE ROADS FLOODED.

0445 PM     FLOOD            LEE CITY                37.74N 83.33W
09/17/2004                   WOLFE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 205 FLOODED WITH 1 FOOT OF WATER.

0445 PM     FLOOD            WISEMANTOWN             37.68N 84.01W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RED LICK ROAD BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 6 AND 8 AND 9
            UNDERWATER. HIGHWAY 1209 AT WAGERSVILLE UNDERWATER
            BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 5.

0446 PM     FLOOD            HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
09/17/2004                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGHWAY 476 FLOODED NEAR JAKES BRANCH.

0452 PM     FLOOD            JELLICO CREEK           36.69N 84.23W
09/17/2004                   WHITLEY            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 92 WEST FLOODED. WOLFE CREEK RIVER ROAD FLOODED.

0455 PM     FLOOD            LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 1006 THROUGH CITY PARK CLOSED DUE TO HIGHWATER.
            BLACKWATER ON HIGHWAY 80 EAST FLOODED AT LOW WATER BRIDGE
            CROSSING.

0500 PM     FLOOD            FANNIN VALLEY           38.14N 83.23W
09/17/2004                   ELLIOTT            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 719 FLOODED SOUTH OF FANNIN.

0505 PM     FLOOD            WARREN                  36.75N 83.84W
09/17/2004                   KNOX               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 225 1 MILE FROM WARREN CAMP FLOODED. 3 HOMES
            FLOODED ON BIG BUSH CREEK ROAD. HIGHWAY 1527 UNDERWATER.

0505 PM     FLOOD            GRASSY CREEK            37.87N 83.35W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 460 FLOODED.

0505 PM     FLOOD            WRIGLEY                 38.02N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 711 NORTH OF WRIGLEY FLOODED.

0507 PM     FLOOD            2 NW JACKSON            37.58N 83.41W
09/17/2004                   BREATHITT          KY   UNKNOWN

            MILLERS BRANCH ROAD OFF HIGHWAY 28 WASHED OUT.

0535 PM     FLOOD            LIVINGSTON              37.30N 84.22W
09/17/2004                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            INTERSTATE OVERPASS ON HIGHWAY 1329 UNDERWATER.

&&

AR

Local storm report, Sep 17, 7:06 PM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLOOD            1 N WEST LIBERTY        37.93N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 7 NEAR WEST LIBERTY CLOSED DUE TO A MUDSLIDE.
            DETOUR AROUND MUDSLIDE ON ROUTE 1161 NOW CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

&&

AR

Local storm report, Sep 17, 8:38 PM EST, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLOOD            WEST LIBERTY            37.91N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 1611 UNDER WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
09/17/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            14 ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
09/17/2004                   MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RIVER ROAD AND ROUTE 7 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0810 PM     FLOOD            OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
09/17/2004                   BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CANNEL CITY, SOUR SPRINGS, AND MCCARTY ROADS ALL CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0802 PM     FLOOD            CUTSHIN                 37.09N 83.26W
09/17/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 699 UNDER WATER.

0800 PM     FLOOD            1 N WEST LIBERTY        37.93N 83.27W
09/17/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 7 NEAR WEST LIBERTY CLOSED DUE TO A MUDSLIDE.
            DETOUR AROUND MUDSLIDE ON ROUTE 1161 NOW CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

0755 PM     FLOOD            BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
09/17/2004                   KNOX               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 229 BLOCKED DUE TO HIGH WATER. STINKING CREEK AND
            LITTLE BRUSH CREEK ROADS ALSO FLOODED.

0752 PM     FLOOD            LEVI JACKSON WILDERNESS 37.08N 84.04W
09/17/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS STILL CLOSED INCLUDING HIGHWAY 1006, COURT
            ROAD, HIGHWAYS 638 AND 578, AND VICTORY GREEN MOUNT ROAD.

0750 PM     FLOOD            MOUNT VERNON            37.36N 84.34W
09/17/2004                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 1329 IN MOUNT VERNON AND LIVINGSTON CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER. HIGHWAY 1912 AND HIGHWAY 1955 AT RED HILL
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0745 PM     FLOOD            BOWEN                   37.84N 83.77W
09/17/2004                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGHWAY 11 CLOSED DUE TO 3 FEET OF WATER ON ROAD.

0745 PM     FLOOD            PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
09/17/2004                   JOHNSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 825 UNDERWATER.

&&

AR

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Estill

When: September 17, 9:15 PM EST to September 19, 2:25 AM EST
Where: Estill forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates: 37.693, -83.964 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Lee

When: September 17, 9:15 PM EST to September 19, 2:25 AM EST
Where: Lee forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates: 37.595, -83.716 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Owsley

When: September 17, 9:15 PM EST to September 19, 2:25 AM EST
Where: Owsley forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates: 37.419, -83.683 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Powell

When: September 17, 9:15 PM EST to September 19, 2:25 AM EST
Where: Powell forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates: 37.831, -83.824 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, September 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5421850, 5421851, 5421852, 5421853.