Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

.SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AT 18Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS
INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

BASICALLY WE WILL REMAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS AS WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
US THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INTO MICHIGAN. IN THE SHORT TERM THE ETA AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

GFS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR FORECAST PER HPC RECOMMENDATION. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BRINGING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY
AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOME AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

JA/MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-250851-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK KY-CLARK IN-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON KY-HARRISON IN-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON KY-JEFFERSON IN-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALF KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT KY-SCOTT IN-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON KY-WASHINGTON IN-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISVILLE...LEXINGTON...BOWLING GREEN...
WINCHESTER...VERSAILLES...STANFORD...SHELBYVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
RICHMOND...HARRODSBURG...HARDINSBURG...GLASGOW...FRANKLIN...
FRANKFORT...ELIZABETHTOWN...DANVILLE...CYNTHIANA...COLUMBIA...
BARDSTOWN...NEW ALBANY...JASPER AND CORYDON
330 PM EDT (230 PM CDT) MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY 9 PM ET.

ANOTHER AROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR THIS REASON THE STORM PREDICTION HAS
PUT THE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JA