Hail in Kansas, May 8 to 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...ALL THE PRODUCTS SEEM TO BE UPDATE NOW TO REFLECT
THE TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES UNTIL 9 PM. MAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. SO FAR...RAIN REPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY WEAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THE MAIN CONCERN.  SFC WARM FRONT AT 18Z STRETCHED
FROM NR KLXN...KGRI...KOLU TO KTQE WITH DRY LINE FM KOGA TO KIMP AND
KGLD. LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BUT CAP STILL
STRONG ATTM.  CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
SHOULD INITIATE TSTMS AS CAP WEAKENS.  WIND FIELDS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...HOWEVER ENOUGH TO PROVIDE STORM ORGANIZATION.  PRIMARY
HAZARD IS STRONG WINDS/HAIL WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH TRAINING STORMS.  INCREASING LOWLEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN
TSTMS AFTER DARK.

SUNDAY ALSO INTERESTING FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY POSITION.  MODELS NOT HANDLING POSITION OF
FRONT VERY WELL TODAY...SO CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT SUNDAY IS NOT
VERY HIGH.  NONE-THE-LESS...SEVERAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE PLACE BY
AFTN TO FOCUS CONVECTION.  STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH SFC COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FM THE
DAKOTAS.  SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN SW NEB AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH DRY LINE PUSHING EAST FM HIGH PLAINS.  ATMOSPHERE AGAIN WILL
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CAP BY LATE
AFTN.  SCT TSTMS AGAIN LOOK REASONABLE WITH INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DRY LINE. BOUNDARY PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDY...COOLER CONDTIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN.

LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
DECENT SIMILARITIES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THEN PUSHING THROUGH AREA BY
FRIDAY.  APPEARS AS THOUGH SEVERAL LEAD WAVES WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH REGION AHEAD OF SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BEST
SURFACE FORCING LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF REGION BUT WITH DRYLINE LIKELY
TO BE WITHIN THE AREA A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED BOTH
DAYS.  SYSTEM THEN PUSHES THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A HEALTHY
FRONT AND DRYLINE SURGING ACROSS THE REGION.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DECENT ENOUGH FOR MENTION.  UPPER WAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DRYING OUT FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD BASED OFF OF EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...WILL AIM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY BUT
THEN COOLING BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR HIGHS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

FAY/AWJ/MORITZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHELBY...TO HASTINGS...TO OXFORD...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 60 MPH.
SUCH STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AGAIN IN SOME
AREAS. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE. THOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND TWO
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE TO THE SOUTH. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALSO EXISTS
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

AWJ/MORITZ/VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             OVERTON                 40.74N 99.54W
05/08/2004  1.00 INCH        DAWSON             NE   PUBLIC

            MAINLY PEA HAIL...BUT SOME QUARTER SIZE

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
733 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             BEAVER CITY             40.14N 99.83W
05/08/2004  0.75 INCH        FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             2 E BEAVER CITY         40.14N 99.79W
05/08/2004  1.00 INCH        FURNAS             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LAWRENCE