Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
POTNL STILL LOOMS FOR CNVTV DVLPMT/SVR STMS THRU MID-EVENING
ACRS SCNTRL KS. AT 2330Z, SFC OBS AND RADAR SHOWD DRYLINE FNT
FM PEABODY IN MARION COUNTY TO NWS/ICT ARPT TO NEAR BLUFF CITY
ALG HARPER/SUMNER COUNTY LINE. DWPT JUMP OF 15 DEGREES (57 TO
72F) NOTED AT ICT ASOS BTWN 2317Z-2327Z.

LATEST THINKING IS THAT LO LVL CNVGNC WL INCRS AS RETREATING
DRYLINE AND SWD MOVG CDFNT AND PREFNTL SFC TROF MERGE JUST N
AND W OF THE GREATER ICT AREA THRU SUNSET. THIS MAY BE ENUF TO
INITIATE DEEP/LCLY SVR CNVTN FOR A FEW HRS ACRS SCNTRL KS.
PROFILERS SUGGEST SHEAR IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STMS
AND A TORNADO RISK ALG DRYLINE.

POTNL FOR A LARGER MESO/CNVTV SYSTEM LATER THIS EVE/OVRNGT ACRS
ERN KS AND PTNS OF THE CWA, SO WL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSBL SVR WX/HVY RAIN RISK LATER ON TNGT.

KED

-----------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
415 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

ALL EYES FOCUSED ON INCREASING CUMULUS E AND S OF ICT.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH SSE WINDS AT WLD/PNC
AND SW WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR 100.  CAPE
VALUES 4000-5000 J/KG...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE ON LAMONT OK WIND
PROFILER...SUGGESTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 PM.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FAVOR HAIL UP TO AT LEAST GOLFBALL SIZE,
WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  ANTICIPATE A TORNADO
WATCH FOR SRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

WOLF

------------------------------------------------------------
332 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TNGT-TUE NGT:
MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS WL BE DEPENDENT ON AMT/AREA/COVERAGE OF TSTMS
TNGT. SGFNT SVR THREAT ACRS MOST/ALL FCST AREA THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
ROABS SHOW WHAT IS LKLY A BREAKABLE CAP WITH DECENT SFC
CONVERGENCE.  WHAT IS UNCLEAR IS HOW FAR S THE TSTMS COULD DVLP INTO
THE WARMER MIDLVL TEMPS AND HOW DRYLN WL RESPOND TO SML UPR SPD MAX
THAT WL BE MOVG ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN.  CAPE/HELICITY IS PLENTIFUL
AND WL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES. BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE NRN SXNS MAY NOT GO TIL CDFNT MOVES THRU, WHILE DRYLN
POTENTIALLY COULD GO IN NEXT COUPLE HRS BASED ON SFC OBS/STLT LOOP.
PCPN PSBL LTR TNGT ALG/N OF FNT...BUT AGN MUCH WL DEPEND ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE EARLY ON. POTENTIAL FOR LCLLY HVY RAIN...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST BAND WL SET UP FOR WATCH, GIVEN A
RELATIVELY SML NUMBER OF CNTYS WL LKLY BE AFFECTED.   DRIER AIR
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE RGN ON TUE DURG THE DAY WITH LINGERING CHCS
OF PCPN IN FAR SE KS LOOKING GOOD FOR TUE NGT.

WED-MON:
ALL MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH PAT CHG.  00Z GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS BY 00Z THU...RANGING FROM EXTREMELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A CUT OFF LO WELL OFF THE W CST.  HPC DISCUSSION
MENTIONED OP ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER RELATIVE IT ITS ENSEMBLES.
INTERESTING HOWEVER THAT THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF H5 PROGS ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILIAR WITH ONLY SLGT TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES.
THIS PUTS A SLOW MOVG FNT ACRS THE CWA STARTING LATE SAT AND EXITING
SE KS ARND 00Z MON.  MADE MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FCST PD.
COOLED TEMPS A BIT ON SUN WITH ANTICIPATED CLDS SE AND COOL AIR
ADVCTN IN THE NW. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY/WINDS/DEWPTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ANTICIPATED FROPA.  COOLER AND FEWER CLDS FOR MON.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         65  74  56  80 /  60  40   5  10
HUTCHINSON      62  72  54  79 /  50  30   5  10
NEWTON          63  73  55  79 /  60  30   5  10
ELDORADO        65  74  56  79 /  70  40   5  10
STROTHER FIELD  68  75  58  80 /  70  40  10  10
RUSSELL         57  71  51  78 /  40  20   5  10
GREAT BEND      59  72  51  80 /  40  20   5  10
SALINA          60  71  52  77 /  50  30   5  10
MCPHERSON       61  72  53  78 /  50  30   5  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  80  61  79 /  50  60  30  10
CHANUTE         67  77  59  78 /  50  60  20  10
IOLA            67  76  58  78 /  50  50  20  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

17/HOWERTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
345 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN
ADDITION, ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER AT NIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FOLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE TIMING, MAGNITUDE, AND TYPE OF
SEVERE THREAT. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER/WOLF