Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
800 PM MDT THU MAY 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED ZONE UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES NORTHEAST. THINKING IS
THAT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...BUT
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER
9-10 PM.

ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER MORGAN COUNTY COLORADO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ENE WHICH WILL TAKE IT JUST NORTH OF YUMA COUNTY AFTER 10
PM. STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGE TO THIS TRACK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU MAY 20 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT)
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
WINDSHEAR AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A SECONDARY FOCUS IS FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AFTER 5 PM MDT..CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
EVENING FROM THIS WEEKEND TO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAMMERS/THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
939 PM MDT THU MAY 20 2004

COZ090-NEZ079>081-210900-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-YUMA-
939 PM MDT (1039 PM CDT) THU MAY 20 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL 3 AM MDT (4 AM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE FROM 930 PM MDT (1030 PM CDT) UNTIL 3 AM MDT (4 AM CDT).

IN COLORADO...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES YUMA COUNTY.

IN NEBRASKA...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES DUNDY...
HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE
WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DLF