Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, August 27 to 28, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION BREAKING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THEN ENDING OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

THIS EVE-TNGT:
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM STJ-MHK-HUT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY
SE OF THE TURNPIKE.  WV SATL SHOWS WEAK S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE OK
PANHANDLE.  EXPECT RAPID TSRA DVLPMNT LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE
AS MID LEVEL CAP IS WEAKENED AS S/WV MOVES OVER THE AREA.  VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE, SO ONCE TSRA DVLPS, EXPECT THE STORMS TO
GO SVR RAPIDLY. SHEAR PROFILE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SO MAIN SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT INITIAL DVLPMNT OVER NW MO WITH TSRA BUILDING SW ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN KS AS CAP ERODES.

TSRA WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SERN KS TNGT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWING AS IT MOVES SE WITH UPR FLOW PARELLEL TO THE FRONT. SO
EXPECT SOME TRAINING OF TSRA ECHOES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS ERN HALF
OF KS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ADDING TO THE UPPER LVL
DIFLUENCE TO PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN KS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN
MIND WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 200 PERCENT AND 850H DWPTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS.

SAT:
EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO STILL BE GOING ACROSS SERN KS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  BUT EXPECT THE SHRA TO END BY AROUND 15Z/SAT AS
DOWNGLIDE KICKS IN ACROS MOST OF KS BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP.
WILL KEEP FLLOD WATCH GOING UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z AS FLOOD THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE ONGOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  WILL ALSO START TO
CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DOWNGLIDE ERODES THE
CLOUD COVER.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME MORE
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR WITH

SUN-TUE:
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS FOR AN EXTENDED STAY
LATE SAT INTO SUN.  LOTS OF SUNSHINE AROUND BUT COOL AIRMASS WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NUMBERS.

SFC RIDGE MOVES SE INTO OK/ARK FOR MON-TUE WITH MOISTURE RETURN
BASICALLY CUT OFF FROM THE PLAINS.

TUE-THU:
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SW
FLOW RETURNS TO THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
S/WV STAYING NW OF THE AREA SO DRY WX WITH A SLOW WARMING PERIOD
DURING THE WEEK.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  79  56  81 /  60  20   5   0
HUTCHINSON      62  79  55  82 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          63  78  56  81 /  50  10   5   0
ELDORADO        65  78  56  81 /  70  20   5   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  80  59  81 /  90  20   5   0
RUSSELL         58  78  54  82 /  10   5   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  79  54  82 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          60  81  55  84 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       61  79  55  82 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  80  60  80 /  90  50   5   0
CHANUTE         67  78  59  79 /  90  50   5   0
IOLA            67  78  58  79 /  90  50   5   0
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

22/KETCHAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A WICHITA TO
HILLSBORO LINE AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE, BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY AROUND
NOON SATURDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING, MAINLY EAST
OF THE TURNPIKE. RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WOULD ALSO BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

COX/KETCHAM