Hail in Iowa, May 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING SLOWLY NWRD TOWARD PLATTE RIVER IN ERN
NEBRASKA BASED ON KOAX RADAR AND MORE COARSE SFC ANLYS...BUT MY OH
MY IS IT CAPPED TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. PREFERRED LOCATION FOR
ANYTHING ACTIVE WOULD SEEM TO BE WHERE STLT HAS INDICATED PERSISTENT
ZONE OF ACC ABV LOW LVL ELY FLOW SC FIELD FM WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL IN IA...FM FAR SERN SD INTO NW IA AND SRN SW MN.  WK
DISTURBANCE HELPING IN INITIATION OF CELLS N OF BLACK HILLS...WITH
SECONDARY WAVE IN SCNTRL SD AND NCNTRL NE ATTM...MUCH WEAKER THAN
FORMER THOUGH...BUT REALLY STARTING TO BACK WNDS AND INCRS LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE TO S...WITH MORE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE SUGGESTED TO LOCK
IN NORTH OF THAT ACRS MAINLY SERN HALF OR SO OF CWA.  WL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THESE ATTEMPT TO INVOLVE LLJ LTR IN LIFE AND MORE
MORE ESE TOWARD NRN CWA...BUT INCRS IN CONVERGENCE AND LOCATION
RIGHT ON EDGE OF STRONGER CAP FAVORS MOVING SOME PCPN INTO MORE
NOCTURNAL REALM ACRS S.

UPDATED TO INCRS POPS FARTHER INTO NIGHT ACRS SRN TIER...AND REALIGN
QPF WITH EXPECTATIONS OF MORE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. DEGREE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER
STORMS SERN HALF OF CWA WHICH DVLP. MOST OF THE SHEAR IS LO LVL AND
NOT TOO USABLE FOR DEVELOPING ELEVATED STORMS...BUT BELT OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW ALFT AS HEAD NORTH THRU CWA.

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

CHAPMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1058 AM CDT FRI MAY 7 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-081200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM YANKTON TO BROOKINGS.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN THREATEN THE AREA...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS A FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE... SHOULD ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. STRONG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM...EAST OF A LINE
FROM YAKNTON TO BROOKINGS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 HACKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     HAIL             2 NW LAKEFIELD          43.70N 95.20W
05/08/2004  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HAIL             2 E ALTON               42.99N 95.97W
05/08/2004  0.75 INCH        SIOUX              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     HAIL             SHELDON                 43.18N 95.84W
05/08/2004  0.75 INCH        OBRIEN            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
132 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             9 W PRIMGHAR            43.09N 95.80W
05/08/2004  0.88 INCH        OBRIEN            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0112 AM     HAIL             6 W PRIMGHAR            43.09N 95.75W
05/08/2004  0.88 INCH        OBRIEN            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CHAPMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ060>062-065>071-080715-
BON HOMME-CLAY-DAKOTA NE-DIXON NE-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-LINCOLN-LYON IA-
MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SIOUX IA-TURNER-
UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NUMBER 160 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA..EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
400 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...GENERALLY
EAST OF LINE FROM MARSHALL MINNESOTA TO IDA GROVE IOWA.

WB