Hail in Iowa, May 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN PBLM THIS EVE IS WHERE TRW WILL FIRE UP. CURRENTLY TRW FIRING
UP ACRS NW IA ON NOSE LLJ. WUD EXPECT A FEW TRW TO ALSO FIRE UP
ALONG FNT TO THE W LATE THIS AFTN AS AIRMASS HEATS OUT AND BECOMES
UNSTABLE. THESE STORMS SHUD SPREAD EWD THIS EVE. DO NOT BELIEVE
ACTIVITY WL BE WIDESPREAD...BUT MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS ACRS NW IA AND
SW MN THIS EVE AS AIRMASS WL CONT TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. CURRENTLY
WATCH OUT FOR NW CWA AND WL PBLY SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER WATCH ISSUED.
ACTIVITY SHUD SHIFT EWD OUT OF CWA AROUND 05Z.

SHUD BE QUITE MOST OF THU...BUT AS FNT STALLS ACRS NEB AND IA...AND
AIRMASS HEATS OUT TO THE S...WUD EXPECT TRW TO BEGING TO FIRE UP
LATE AFTN NR BNDRY ACRS FAR SRN CWA AND THEN SPREAD NWD OVERNIGHT
WITH POT FOR SVR WX AND HEAVY RAINS. WUD PUT BEST POT FOR HVY RAINS
ACRS SW MN ATTM. PRECIP WL LINGER OVER NE CWA FRI MORN...BUT WITH
FNT IN AREA...MORE STORMS WL DEVELOP LATE AFTN AND CONT OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SAT WITH AFNT AND NIGHT TIME STORMS.
LINGER CHC ERN CWA SUN MORN...WITH DRY WX REST OF DAY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE AND FNT MON CUD TRIGGER MORE STORMS AND HAVE KEPT
POPS GOING.

TEMPS WL BE TRICKY DPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF FNT YOU ARE ON. SUX AND
NW IA SHUD BE WARMEST THRU SAT AS FNT WL LIKELY STALL IN THAT AREA.
FARHTER N COOLER TEMPS AND NELY FLOW.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-201200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED HEATING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE
EXACT LOCATION AND MOST LIKELY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 TIME FRAME...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 8 PM OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
303 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             MERRILL                 42.72N 96.25W
05/19/2004  1.75 INCH        PLYMOUTH           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM     HAIL             MERRILL                 42.72N 96.25W
05/19/2004  0.75 INCH        PLYMOUTH           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     HAIL             LE MARS                 42.79N 96.17W
05/19/2004  1.00 INCH        PLYMOUTH           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     HAIL             LE MARS                 42.79N 96.17W
05/19/2004  0.88 INCH        PLYMOUTH           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0302 PM     HAIL             LE MARS                 42.79N 96.17W
05/19/2004  0.88 INCH        PLYMOUTH           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS