Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, May 27 to 28, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CONVERGENT ZONE IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FURTHER WEST IN
MISSOURI. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THE WIDESPREAD THREAT REMAINS
IN SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WHERE 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
1/2 INCH OR LESS. SO HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH THERE THROUGH 4 AM
EDT.

FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE
PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ALTHOUGH HAVE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS. FRONT WILL THEN
BEGIN RETURNING NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND THE BOUNDARY NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERSISTENT FRNTL BNDRY MAKES RETURN TO REGION SUN WITH WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.  IT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRNT IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING SFC LO OVER UPR MISSISSIPPI
VLY.  AS SFC LO OCCLUDES AND DEEP UPR TROF SHIFT INTO OH VLY
MON...STRONG COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU FCST AREA WITH CHANCE FOR
TSTMS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR SVR WX...AND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ONE MAJOR FACTOR
FOR SVR WILL BE TIMING OF FROPA WHICH EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER ON.
00Z GFS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH UPR FLO PATTERN...AND THUS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH FROPA (EAST OF REGION BY ERLY MON AFTN).
ECMWF/UKMET BOTH MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH FROPA ACRS FCST AREA
DURING THE AFTN.  WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORTING SLOWER
SOLN...HAVE KEPT POPS ACRS REGION FOR GOOD PART OF DAY.  WHILE THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SFC HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY ACRS FCST
AREA...STRONG DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM INDCG POTENTIAL FOR SVR
REGARDLESS IF FROPA OCCURS DURING MORNING OR AFTN.

PATTERN SHIFT FOR OH VLY AND LWR GRT LKS FOR REMAINDER OF EXTND AS
DVLPG UPR LVL RIDGE ACRS WESTERN CONUS ALLOWS BROAD UPR TROF TO DVLP
ACRS EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY.  SECONDARY FROPA FOR TUES WILL BRING
CHC SHRA/TSTMS AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. ALL MODELS
ARE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN PREV DAYS RUNS WITH UPR TROF...AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS AND RAISED TEMPS A BIT WED/THURS.  NW FLO
WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS
AND GENERALLY DRY WX.  RYAN

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM EDT INZ073>075.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM EDT KYZ089>100.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM EDT OHZ077>082-088.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271111-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
512 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL EXIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MEMORIAL DAY...
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
REFER TO LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AR