Flash Flood and Hail in Indiana, May 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
225 AM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...AT 07Z A STATIONARY FRONT WAS FM LP OF MICH SOUTHWEST
TO NR KMCI.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST THRU KCHI AND LK MICH
AND WERE WEAKENING.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAS FORMED ALONG
AN OLD BOUNDARY LEFT BY CONVECTION ALONG THE CDFNT OVER THE MO/IA
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST.  IR SAT SHOWS THIS LINE MAINTAINING OR
INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL COOLING.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON CHANCE OF PRECIP AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.  NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR A STRING OF SHORT WAVES TO PASS
THRU THE MIDWEST OVER THE LAST 24 HRS.  THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THANKS TO A STRONG HI OVER THE SWRN US.  THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY OVER MI/IL/MO IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ETA CAPES ARE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF THE
FRONT WHICH SEEMS TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA LATER THIS
AFTN.  LIS ARE -2 TO -4 AT THE SAME TIME.  SO WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TSRA ARE POSSIBILITY.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE BIGGEST THREAT
AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.  FRONT SINKS TO NEAR KIND
TONIGHT AND STALLS OUT AGAIN.  WITH FLOW STILL FORECAST TO BE
PARALLEL HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING ARE A CONCERN.  WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  FFG IS HIGH
FOR 24 HRS AT AROUND 3-4 INCHES.  SMALL BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THRU THE WEEKEND BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS
SUBTROPICAL HI HANGS ON OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS RESULTING IN CHC
TSRA EACH DAY.

FOR TEMPS WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR HIGHS SINCE MOS HAS BEEN A
LITTLE COOL COMPARED WITH REALITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK FINE.
&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
505 AM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191004-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
505 AM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE MAIN THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&
MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND

SALLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-190000-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DECATUR-DELAWARE-
FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-JOHNSON-
MADISON-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-
RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
1248 PM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #216 REMAINS IN EFFECT...

THE WATCH COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700
PM EST. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.