Hail in Illinois, June 26, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY AND FOR TDA...QUIET...AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NITE ACRS FA
WITH 07Z MSAS DATA SHOWING 1022MB HI PRES CONTG TO BLD INTO MO.
LACK OF ANY 3-HRLY PRES RISES IN THE PAST COUPLE HRS INDICATIVE OF
HI PRES MOVMT SLOWING DOWN TO A CRAWL.  TEMPS ACRS FA IN THE LOW-MID
50S...AND TWO RECORD LOWS ARE BEING THREATENED ATTM...WITH RECORD AT
UIN OF 49 IN 1958 AND RECORD AT COU OF 54 IN 1974.  TEMPS ARE A LTL
HIR ACRS SRN FA WITH LOW CLDS JUST RECENTLY CLRG OUT.  SAT PIX SHOWS
THIN CI MOVG IN FM W...LOW POST-FNTL CLDS JUST S OF FA...AND MID
CLD DVLPG ACRS KS/NEB.  MDLS PROG MID CLD TO CONT TO EXPAND TO OUR W
AND EVENTUALLY MOV INTO NWRN PRTNS OF FA LATE THIS AFTN.  OTRW...
ONLY A FEW CU XPCTD WITH THIN CI...SO LOOK FOR SUNNY/MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MOST LOCNS.  SFC RDG ACRS FA WL PROMOTE WKLY MIXED B-LYR...BUT
HI SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YR WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE XPCTD WL YIELD
DECENT SUPER-ADIABAT NR THE SFC...WHICH WL GIVE MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE.

00Z MDLS MAINTAIN L/W RDG OVR WRN NOAM THRU MON NGT...BUT WITH POLAR
VORTEX OVR QUEBEC PULLING AWAY BEGINNING TNGT...LOOK FOR L/W RDG
POSN TO MOV SLGTLY TO THE E.  EITHER WAY...ANY ATTEMPT TO RTRN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WL BE MET WITH SOME RESISTANCE AS REGULAR
INTRUSIONS OF COOLER AIR WL MOV S INTO FA OVR THE NXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TWO S/WVS OF NOTE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WL MAKE FOR TRICKY
FCST AS SYS ARE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO FLW.  FIRST XPCTD TO MOV
THRU LATE SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME AND SECOND WL PRIMARILY CLIP NRN
PRTNS OF FA LATE SUN NGT INTO ERL MON. TIMING DIFF BTWN GFS AND ETA
ON FIRST S/WV...AND AT THIS TIME...WENT WITH A COMP.  AT THE SFC...HI
PRES RDG WL DOMINATE THINGS THRU TNGT BFR SHIFTING A LTL NWD WHERE A
SFC LO XPCTD TO DRIFT TO OUR S ON SUN/SUN NGT/MON WITH ANOTR HI PRES
BLDG IN ON MON/MON NGT.

FOR TNGT...CLDS BLD IN TO MAINLY NRN SXNS THIS PD AS MOISTURE SLOLY
MAKES A RTRN TO RGN.  AVAIL MOISTURE STILL NOTHING SPECTACULAR...
WITH PWATS ONLY ARND 1.2 IN THE NW BY NITE/S END AND INSTABILITY
STILL RATHER MEAGER.  SOME FORCING ASSOC WITH S/WV MOVS IN LATE AND
HV MAINTAINED LOW CHC POP IN NW...BUT DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE.  WITH
VARIOUS ELEMENTS ALL BORDERLINE...LEFT OUT THUNDER THIS PD.  ON
TEMPS...GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH LEANED WRM IN THE NW AND COOL
IN THE SE.

FOR SUNDAY...S/WV WL CONT PUSHING THRU FA...ALTHOUGH BEST
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WL RMN ACRS THE NW...AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST
POPS HV BEEN MAINTAINED.  WITH LOTS OF CLDS XPCTD...ESP ACRS CNTRL
AND NRN THIRDS...AND LGT WNDS CONTG AT B-LYR...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE AT
TIMES TO RISE AND THEREFORE SIDED WITH COOLEST GFS MOS TEMPS...AND IN
SOME CASES WENT BLO.

FOR SUNDAY NGT/MONDAY...ANOTR S/WV WL CLIP NRN PRTNS OF FA LATE
SUNDAY NGT WHILE ANOTR SYS PASSES TO THE S AND SE.  HV CHC POPS ACRS
N SUNDAY NGT WITH JUST SLGT CHCS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.  GUIDANCE MINS
SUNDAY NGT LOOK OK...BUT AGAIN LEANED COOL FOR MAX TEMPS MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        78  60  79  64 /  05  10  20  20
QUINCY          75  58  75  59 /  10  30  30  30
COLUMBIA        76  58  77  60 /  10  30  30  30
JEFFERSON CITY  77  58  77  60 /  10  30  30  20
SALEM           77  55  78  60 /  05  10  20  20
FARMINGTON      76  55  78  60 /  05  10  20  20
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

TES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARILY FOR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TES