Damaging Winds in Georgia, May 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH 700 PM. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. A CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE AIR DRIES OUT.
UPPER TROUGH LAGGING THE FRONT AND NOT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRYING WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT 5-10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING SOUTHEAST REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASE BY
LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH SUPPORT KEEPING LONG TERM DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLUMBIA     60  74  47  74 /  80  30  10   0
AUGUSTA      57  75  46  75 /  80  30  10   0
SUMTER       60  75  47  74 /  80  40  10   0
ORANGEBURG   60  75  47  75 /  80  40  10   0
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-021200-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-021916-

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 40 MPH...THEY MAY BECOME
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

THE MAIN THREAT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING
SHOULD BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.