Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.CURRENTLY...STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS THE E 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FIRING IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH
INSTABILITY...A VORTICITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FL
TO THE N CENTRAL GOMEX (WITH INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES MOVING ALONG
IT)... AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 500 MB TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
UPSTREAM TO AROUND -9C AND LIS ARE APPROACHING -10. ONLY NVA
(NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION) NW OF THE AREA IS PREVENTING TSTMS
FROM ERUPTING...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION OVER SE AL AND OUR N GA ZONES
MAY BE SIGN OF MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF DYNAMICS WILL
REDUCE POPS THIS EVENING...ALTHO SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S
ZONES. IN ADDITION...ANY OUTFLOWS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER
REMAINDER OF ZONES MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING LATE IF IT CAN DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THRU EVENING OVER MOST ZONES AND
DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS TOWARD PRESS TIME.

FRI...LACK OF ORGANIZED PVA WILL LEAD TO LESS BUT MORE UNIFORM
COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST IS CONTINGENT ON
NO IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY SE ON BACKSIDE OF ABNORMALLY DEEP ATLC
TROF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FCST. MAV MOS SHOWS VERY HIGH POPS...WITH MORE THAN 80% ACROSS S
ZONES. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT ALSO DONT BUY LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT POPS IN ETA. SO...WILL USE GFS PRECIP FIELD BUT SCALE
BACK ROUGHLY 20%. THANX FOR COORD MLB/TBW

SAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT SFC
LOW NR KATL. NO SUCH DEVELOPMENT IN ETA SUITE. HOWEVER...MOS NUMBERS
CLOSE SO WILL GENERALLY BLEND WITH ROUGHLY 60% AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AS GFS INDICATES
MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS AND PATTERN DAMPENS SOMEWHAT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE TONIGHT WITH SCEC NEEDED. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 94 72 89 / 30 30 20 60
SSI 75 90 76 88 / 40 30 20 60
JAX 73 92 73 90 / 40 40 30 60
SGJ 75 91 75 90 / 40 50 30 60
GNV 72 90 72 88 / 30 50 40 60
OCF 72 89 72 88 / 30 50 40 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151600-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
930 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS LATE THIS MORNING WITH
THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE.  BEST CHANCES MAINLY IN THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO 2 INCHES OR MORE.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN AREAS THAT DO NOT GET EARLY
RAIN...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INDICES THIS HIGH CAN RESULT IN HEAT
EXHAUSTION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

WELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ136-152130-
WAYNE GA-
500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES WEST OF GARDI...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JESUP
AND GARDI THROUGH 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.  HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ036-152200-
ALACHUA FL-
510 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND GAINESVILLE...GAINESVILLE AIRPORT...WALDO...NEWNANS
LAKE...ORANGE HEIGHTS AND GROVE PARK THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ132-152200-
COFFEE GA-
512 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROXTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOUGLAS...BROXTON AND WEST GREEN
THROUGH 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO OCCUR.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
525 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ023-030-031-152215-
BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-UNION FL-
525 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRADFORD...UNION
AND BAKER COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 525 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
21 MILES NORTH OF SANDERSON TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF RAIFORD...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE BUTLER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANDERSON...RAIFORD...
ELLERBEE AND GLEN ST. MARY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.  ALSO
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
533 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TORNADO          HORTENSE                31.33N 81.96W
07/15/2004                   BRANTLEY           GA   PUBLIC

            TRUCKER REPORTED TORNADO FOLLOWED HIM DOWN US 301. CALLED
            FROM HORTENSE TO WAYNE COUNTY EM.

&&

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
534 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ149-163-152215-
ATKINSON GA-CLINCH GA-
534 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND
ATKINSON COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PEARSON TO 5 MILES EAST OF HOMERVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PEARSON TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARGYLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PEARSON...HOMERVILLE AND COGDELL THROUGH 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. STAY INDOORS.
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA