High Surf in Florida, September 22 to 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR REFORMED TD IVAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

.UPDATE...IVAN STILL AT IT...WITH AN UPGRADE TO TS STATUS. LOOKING
AT THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...HAVING AN EXTREMELY HARD TIME
SEEING IT GET ANY STRONGER...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER SHEAR
LOPPING ITS PROVERBIAL TOP OFF.

WITH THE 10PM NHC ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED AT
27.4N/90.0W (295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TEXAS COAST). MOVEMENT WAS
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MPH.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UPGRADED TO WARNING AS OFFICE FEELING THAT
DAMAGING SWELL IS GOING TO HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF ANY
PROTECTION FROM IVANS LAST ROUND-HOUSE AT THE AREA.

16/MILLER

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&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
IVAN...ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND IS
RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE COAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS COUPLED WITH HIGH TIDES
BETWEEN DAUPHIN ISLAND TO PNS OCCURRING FROM 5AM TO 6 AM THU MORNING
WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TOWARD SUNRISE THU
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND EASTWARD TO PNS...AREAS
MUCH MORE VULNERABLE DUE TO EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IVAN.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL
MOBILE...BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THRU 11 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
SEE THE CFWMOB FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
MARINE AREA...BUT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL HELP HOLD TONIGHTS RAIN CHANCES TO LOW SCATTERED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE ON
THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS AND GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH DRY AIR IN-PLACE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EXTENDED...THE WEEKENDS DRY CONDITIONS WILL GET REINFORCED BY THE
AREA BEING ON THE FAR WEST...SUBSIDENT SIDE OF HURRICANE JEANNE AS IT
POSSIBLY APPROACHES THE EAST MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THIS VERIFYS AND JEANNE PUSHES UP THE EAST COAST THRU MID
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY WILL TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING BY FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FURTHER OVER
THE WEEKEND AS WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE.

NOTE TO USERS:  BUOY NUMBER 42040 TOOK A NEARLY DIRECT HIT FROM
HURRICANE IVAN ON THE MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 15TH AND IS NOW ADRIFT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL REMOVED FROM ITS USUAL MOORED LOCATION
OF 70 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. AT LAST REPORT...THE
BUOY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 185 NM SOUTH OF THE USUAL MOORED LOCATION.
WHILE THE BUOY IS STILL TRANSMITTING DATA...THE OBSERVATIONS BEING
REPORTED ARE FROM THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BUOY...WHICH IS ABOUT
260 NM SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...INSTEAD OF THE NORMAL 70 NM SOUTH
OF DAUPHIN ISLAND MOORED LOCATION.  USERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
FACT WHEN USING DATA FROM BUOY 42040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...
MOBILE     67 85 68 89 / 20 10  5  5
PENSACOLA  69 86 70 89 / 20 10 10 10
DESTIN     70 86 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
EVERGREEN  63 87 65 90 / 10  5  5  5
WAYNESBORO 63 86 65 89 / 10  5  5  5
CAMDEN     62 88 64 90 / 10  5  5  5

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TONIGHT ALZ063-064 AND GMZ630-650.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TONIGHT FLZ002 AND GMZ655.
MS...NONE.

&&

39/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230300-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
700 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AT 7 PM...NEWLY REGENERATED TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  IVAN WAS
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.  TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM
...INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  INCREASED
SWELLS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BEFORE DAYBREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH MOBILE...SOUTH BALDWIN...AND SOUTH
ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.  PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NWS FORECAST
OFFICE IN MOBILE CONCERNING THIS ISSUE.

TROPICAL STORM IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTH LOUISIANA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON NEWLY REFORMED
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.